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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Worst start to a ski season for 25 years according to Meteo France.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Do you have a link to the GFS charts? I had a look at the stickied post but the links are broken
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Steve77 wrote:
Do you have a link to the GFS charts? I had a look at the stickied post but the links are broken


Here are some:

Meteociel (French) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Meteoexploration (English) http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/gfsmaps.php

NOAA (English, a bit more complex) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=EUROPE&ps=area

Wetterzentrale (German) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


Although I prefer the WRF (Higher resolution) :

http://www.lamma.rete.toscana.it/meteo/modelli

http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/
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Alpe d'huez 18th December 2001



and Aussois in January 1994


http://youtube.com/v/16UJ4ADpUVU
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@davidof, yeah, 1989 was pretty minging. Took a while to get going...
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from my untrained eye and a look at a few GFS charts it looks like temps will start to drop around Xmas day and drop considerably.....

@Steve77, I have some GFS charts and webcams all on one page http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=la+plagne
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
a good 20cm fell here in La Plagne last nignt
Made the drive up very hairy - roodies clearly taken by surprise coz no snow ploughing or grit anywhere, and loads of cars sliding all over the road
No rain now, but clearly much warmer - snow melting fast here in 1800
Just about to go out to see what rest of the place is like
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
interesting visuals

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.557,-0.083,4
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Guys, were off to VT Boxing Day for a week....all this negative media and talk of the season being doomed is causing me sleepless nights, please put my mind at rest and tell me its all gonna be fine...pretty please!!!
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kitenski wrote:
interesting visuals

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.557,-0.083,4


That is a copy of http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-8.60,53.95,601 but it is fair to say that they give full credit to the original author in the info section.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@swilson1980, by VT I assume you mean Val Thorens? as a high area you'll be fine....

Some pics from Val Thorens last week (I think) here http://insideoutskiing.com/gallery/meribel2014.html
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@cota4000, that's an even nicer link Smile
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@kitenski yeah Val Thorens your pictures have cheered me right up fantastis shots hope the upcoming high temperatures dont melt the sun Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@swilson1980, well VT is the highest you can go, it already has decent snow, and you're there in a week's time. I'd say that of everyone worrying about imminent departures, you're pretty well covered.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

hope the upcoming high temperatures dont melt the sun

if it does we sure won't be worrying about snow cover.... wink
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Currently raining in Zermatt below about 2100m. Quite heavy at the moment but was snowing earlier on. Quite a bit of fresh snow around earlier on.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's the weekend before Christmas but rather than drive 1 to 2 hours to a ski resort I'm thinking of getting the mountainbike out to ride in the sun. rolling eyes

http://www.bergfex.at/hohewandwiese/wetter/
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Recent runs on both GFS and ECM have been suggesting a cool down following Christmas Day. At present it looks like it would be considerable and sustained. But. Given that it's all in FI I would be pretty cautious about how long it might last, FI can tend to exagerate certain features. But it does look like colder weather may be on the way. Will it bring snow? It would do on the basis of current output, but you'd want to see that coming into high res and being sustained before you had confidence in it.

The Arlberg



Chamonix

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Just been up to Samoens 1600.... Raining. They are doing their best to move snow and get something open for Saturday... Base on pistes is about 7-8 cm and it was pretty warm.... 3 degrees... May head to Avoriaz for a few days next week
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The best most of us can hope for is some good sunshine over Christmas, to enjoy the mountain scenery. And it looks as though that might come about.
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cota4000 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
interesting visuals

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,53.557,-0.083,4


That is a copy of http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-8.60,53.95,601 but it is fair to say that they give full credit to the original author in the info section.


Those are beautiful. Shame they don't show snowfall otherwise they'd be my new screensaver.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I need to take my car in for repairs. I'm in Geneva and and my car thermomter reckons it is 10+ celsius Shocked
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Absolutely horrendous weather today in the Dales. All the snow has gone Sad

Outlook is colder however over Christmas with a good chance of snow showers the further north you go.

Sounds as though the Alpine cool down will coincide with the current MetO 30 day outlook for the UK.
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Juddernaut wrote:
I need to take my car in for repairs. I'm in Geneva and and my car thermomter reckons it is 10+ celsius Shocked


Getting the summer tyres put back on?
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@Steve77, thinking outside the square. I like it. Temperatures are ridiculously high and forecast to continue for a week. Friends arriving from Oz are going to be gutted.
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Quote:

forecast to continue for a week


Not so ridiculously high, MeteoSuisse forecast cooler weather from Sunday
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Today is warmer than at any time during the whole of last winter, when the temperature in this part of England did not exceed for 10C for 3 months Shocked
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

forecast to continue for a week


Not so ridiculously high, MeteoSuisse forecast cooler weather from Sunday


Really? rolling eyes Megeve forecast for next week has maximums of 6 to 9 degrees. Lowest minimum of -1 Shocked
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Juddernaut wrote:
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

forecast to continue for a week


Not so ridiculously high, MeteoSuisse forecast cooler weather from Sunday


Really? rolling eyes Megeve forecast for next week has maximums of 6 to 9 degrees. Lowest minimum of -1 Shocked


For what altitude?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/home.html?tab=overview&date=6days

Also

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/france/weather-chamonix-mont-blanc?day=5
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@clarky999, I assume the elevation of Megeve (i.e. 1000m)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Juddernaut, so as @under a new name said not all that high (at the elevations where you'll be skiing) then..?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@clarky999, Well obviously nobody will be skiing under 2000m for a while. My point is that the temperatures are well above average for this time of the year.
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Funny (not) just received email from Inghams: " ....Snowfalls have continued accross the Alps in the last few days......"
"....... our Ski Again initiative has been bolstered by the favourable weather......
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Juddernaut, average December temperatures for Megeve (from what I can see) are -3°C to +5°C, with the highest recorded max at +18°C... So the current temperatures are hardly freakish!
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Louis wrote:
Funny (not) just received email from Inghams: " ....Snowfalls have continued accross the Alps in the last few days......"
"....... our Ski Again initiative has been bolstered by the favourable weather......


What's wrong about that? It HAS been snowing across the Alps for the last few days. Just not heavily. Check all the individual area threads on here to verify if you must...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Just because there isn't much snow out there doesn't mean it is not dangerous;

http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2014/12/18/avalanche-a-tignes-un-militaire-hospitalise-a-grenoble
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Louis, Presumably their 'Ski Again' initiative is for those booked into (say) the Grand Massif over xmas who will now need to 'ski again' later in the year when the area is open.
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Saw the result today at the top of the Grattalu, was being looked at by the pisteurs
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@red 27, Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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