 Poster: A snowHead
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probability of milder than average September and Autumn as a whole for the UK
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Certainly very mild at present. Just had supper sitting outside in a T shirt watching the moon on the water. Temperature is 19 degrees at 2030. Lovely. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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which is, pam w, excellent, non? we are heading to Geneva and the municipal pool for lunch. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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50% probability of above average
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Isn't that basically true by definition?!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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ChrisWo, No, not as I understand it. Though maybe it would be a 50% probability of being above the median. Stats not my strong point. 
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ChrisWo, no because if you look at the article and the diagram above it you can see it has three broad outcomes not just two. Colder than average, average and warmer than average. So 50% probability for one of those would mean 20/30 or 10/40 or a rather unlikely 0/50 split for the other two. But it could also be 30/40/30 or 60/20/20 or various other permutations.
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It makes kind of pointless reading though without the agency's synoptic best-guessing behind it (the UK's met office generally accompany their own tea leaf reading seasonal forecasts with projected mean surface pressure charts etc).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Always typical that most of these forecasts do not present their skill at predicting previous events, despite the ease with which this could be done (why not a simple uncertainty (stdev) on the forecast, and why the presentational gymnastics with the 'below, average, above' split?!). Nice that they admit being so wrong about August. As far as I can tell, they don't even say how the forecast is made, whether modelled or surmised or combination. Models for instance have a high degree of persistence, so if the spin up was warmer than average (which this year has been for much of the rest of the world), then the forecast will be warmer than average (however you define average). They are good at simple extrapolation, and particularly bad at predicting transitions, and the autumn-winter transition is a strong annual event in Central Europe which is particularly difficult to get right at this kind of range.
For example (my Germans nicht so gut), but looking back, I notice that for the autumn 2012 they predicted November to be an especially cold month, with very high probability..
"November 2012 somit von der letzten Prognose doch deutlich, welche noch mit sehr hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit von einem zu kalten November ausgegangen ist."
Yet..
Austria was in fact 2.3°C warmer than the 1971–2000 average.
"Österreichweit gesehen lag dieser November um 2,3 ° C über dem vieljährigen Mittel. Beachtlich sind die Regionen von Unterkärnten, über die südliche Steiermark bis zum Südburgenland. Hier war es sogar um 3 bis 4° C wärmer, das bedeutet Platz sieben in der Messgeschichte.“
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/vorlaeufige-bilanz-november-2012
Back to the tea leaves?
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FreeBeer, fair point though for what it's worth the Meteosuisse provides the following self assessment:
Frühlingsprognose etwa 65%.
Sommerprognose etwa 60%
Herbstprognose etwa 55%
Winterprognose etwa 55%
I think most of them try to strike a balance somewhere between making it relatively straightforward to understand and trying to explain the complexity. Almost all if them caveat them pretty heavily. It's not a straightforward balance to make. If they publish them then they get criticised because they aren't always "right" although given the spread of possibilities this is perhaps to misunderstand how they work (unlikely events still happen). If they don't publish them people suspect some sort of conspiracy to "hide the truth" (that being what "they" always do).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The seasonal forecasts (from respected agencies) are of some value for sure, especially if they publish some methodology too. If methodology is in the public domain, and people also understand that seasonal outlooks are verifying to at most 55%-65% accuracy (as above) simply for warmer/colder or wetter/drier than normal, then at least it helps people understand the context of a seasonal forecast that predicts a destructive storm over Paris on 23rd October, and a 3 day long blizzard in London on 3rd December, and why that'll have been written by a crackpot.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bit of a cold blast heading towards the Alps at the weekend. Doesn't look like it will last long, but temperatures could drop 10C in places.
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America predicting big snow this winter.
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You know it makes sense.
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Cooler weather reaching the eastern Alps at the end of the week.
The Austrian glacier look like getting 10-20cm down to 1700-1800m on Friday.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Some suggestions that the last week of September could see cooling back towards seasonal average.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Still some suggestions that temperatures might fall back towards average in the last week of September, though nothing really cold at this stage.
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How do I find theses graphs thanks
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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any toddler can create these sort of graphs, just give them some paper and crayons
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Never mind sorted it 
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I think the technical term, for the last few years, is 'wigglies' not 'graphs'.
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In general terms there continues to be a trend towards temperatures cooling towards seasonal averages in the last week of September. On the charts above it's more pronounced this morning in Scotland and less evident in the eastern Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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May see snow briefly below 2000m on Monday night Tuesday morning in Eastern Alps.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| In general terms there continues to be a trend towards temperatures cooling towards seasonal averages in the last week of September. On the charts above it's more pronounced this morning in Scotland and less evident in the eastern Alps. |
The air should cool down quickly in Scotland as of today 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Autumn equinox not too far off now.
Tuesday morning 0229 GMT if you happen to be up.
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You know it makes sense.
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Less than 24 hours to equinox.
Some cooler, or close to seasonal weather in the Alps over the next week, but high pressure and milder temperatures look dominant as we head into October.
Good hiking weather potentially.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Also snow on the peaks around Schruns - looks damn pretty in the morning sun!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, always snows around the autumnal equinox in my experience. I got to drive home early from work last September to put my winter tyres on as it had snowed in my village. Didn't last but the risk was too great to stay on summers with a 16% gradient up to the village. Got all excited then it didn't snow properly again until the end of November! We have a long weekend most Octobers (Tag der Deutsche-Einheit on 3rd October) and I've often been caught out with summer tyres on as I drive to or from a short stay vacation. Worst was about 7 years back as we drove over the Tauern-Autobahn from Kärnten back to Bayern in what started as heavy cold rain and then quickly changed into a full-blown snow storm! I definitely was not my usual lead-footed self on that particular journey. Again it did not stay around but the winter was quite a good 'un in the end
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yes, heading out of the cooler weather over the next couple of days and for now at least the tail of September and start of October looking generally quite mild for the time of year.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Temperatures look like warming up over the weekend, but out in FI the 06z is punting the idea of cooler weather in the Alps from 05 October.
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But not so this morning with a continuation of milder than average temperatures from this weekend looking most likely against the backdrop of high pressure over Europe.
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The way i look at it is this: its rather like a bank account. There is only so much cold, or hot, or snow to go round.
So, if all the hot is being used up now, with this mild weather, then by ski-time it will all have been used up, leaving only cold
And hopefully lots of snow 
(apologies to nozawaonsen for totally unscientific concept, but it keeps me happy)
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There is a risk that the Alps has used up its precipitation quota this year under your analysis. In which event an unusally dry winter could be on the cards. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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No real evidence to support the idea that a wet summer means a dry winter or a mild autumn means a cold winter. Doesn't stop people claiming it mind you.
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Ah, Peter S, your're not playing this right.
Like tax and similar stuff, you can carry over stuff from previous years, or carry forward, whichever is most beneficial.
So Precipitation so far this year is clearly part of 2013-14.
The Precipitation Year starts end of October.
Let's not be having any of them nasty negative waves
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sat 27-09-14 9:26; edited 1 time in total
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