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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
After last years variance between worry, which became blind panic in the weeks leading up to the alpine holiday, the relative dissappointment whilst there and, on reflection, what was in the main just about the best skiing weather and conditions all season in central Austria I'll accept anything better.

I think most folks agreed that, North East Italy apart, last season was at best adequate and I maintain my view that we were due a 'bad' one and hopefully by the law of averages we will have a better one this year.

This is the first time since planning for the 07/08 holidays that I've been reluctant to book in advance of the snow falling and staying. Others in the planned party are keen to book soon to make sure we get the flying and staying wheres and whens exactly as we want but its amazing how one holiday of drizzle and strips of man-made snow on green mountain sides makes me less fussed on the 'incidentals' of accommodation standards and convenient flight times?

snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rumours of snow flurries in the highlands later this week.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I don't agree that last season was bad at all. The off piste was a bit patchy at first, but piste conditions were very good from 2nd week dec through to early May.
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robboj wrote:


I think most folks agreed that, North East Italy apart, last season was at best adequate and I maintain my view that we were due a 'bad' one and hopefully by the law of averages we will have a better one this year.


North East Italy and South East Austria certainly got a ridiculous amount of snow, but from reports it looked like lots of France (Serre Chevaleir, at least, from weathercam's photos) did pretty well too.

North/West Austria wasn't great for most of the season, but Oct-Nov and late March-April were actually pretty damn good.
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Last season wasn't that bad in the portes du soleil! Got a good number of powder days, some excellent off piste, for sure winter never really got down into the valley bottoms but I had a good time! Perhaps I have a more overall impression of the winter rather than the one or two weeks a year visitors.............? I'm looking forward to seeing what this years crop of ski films do with the amazing conditions they had on the Italian side!

Here in the Lake District I'm thinking that autumn is arriving, there's quite a few trees come down over the weekend, browns and golds are starting to appear in the trees around coniston and the heather is purple. I'm thinking it's arrived a week or two early this year. Perhaps an Indian summer in sept followed by an early onset of winter. Don't care about the alps this year till jan English ski touring here I come! Puzzled
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Well for me it was on the sh!te side of adequate but let's look forward to a good season all round, which, for me, is one where a base is down in November and sticks and the only 'worries' are getting through to the resort and frostbite when I'm there.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Last season I opened up on the 7th November with fresh snow in Tignes and finished on the 18th April in Morzine with fresh snow falling high up and rain in resort, was certainly not an awful season by any stretch!
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Well last season was superb south of the Alpine ridge.

Nearer to home winter started early in the North Pennines with the first skiing at Yad Moss in late November but it was dissapointing thereafter. The Yad moss tow ran on 8 days and although conditions were reasonable, all the snow came from the west , our worst direction. We were also 200 feet too low.

The Lake District Ski Club however had their snowiest winter for 20 years with up to 5m of snow lying in Savages gulley by mid February and lots of digging out needed. Their tow ran on more than 40 days and skiing conditions were fantastic with almost no ice.

Further north and higher still, it was the snowiest winter for more than 70 years at Glencoe with some runs buried to a depth of 10m by March Shocked There are still quite a lot of snow patches left on Scotland's highest peaks.

The unpredictable jet stream which seems to be a feature of post climate change Britain, is probably our best bet for snowy winters in the short to medium term. snowHead
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robboj wrote:
Well for me it was on the sh!te side of adequate but let's look forward to a good season all round, which, for me, is one where a base is down in November and sticks and the only 'worries' are getting through to the resort and frostbite when I'm there.


Well we had a base from late October last season, so I'm hoping for a little more than that this one!!
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The Remains of Last Winters Snow. Carn Ban Mor, Scotland.


That was posted on facebook last week, along with this:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/skier-s-record-breaking-56-months-on-slopes-1-3457970
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There was certainly a lot more German voices around the PDS last season....................
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Last night saw a record cold overnight temperature for August recorded in Northern Ireland and ground frost is a risk in the highlands over the next week. Obviously that means nothing for autumn let alone winter, but it is a reminder that colder temperatures are not far off.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Little Martin, fantastic.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
kitenski wrote:
Last season I opened up on the 7th November with fresh snow in Tignes and finished on the 18th April in Morzine with fresh snow falling high up and rain in resort, was certainly not an awful season by any stretch!



I suspect that where ROBBOJ the poster is coming from is that if you only have a week skiing then that week defines the 'season' in your eyes. Whereas those who are skiing at times throughout the season, or who are dealing with those skiing all through the season, probably have a different view.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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emwmarine, My season started in November in Tignes and finished in April at Nevis Range, it was still a relatively poor season.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Return to warmer weather by the end of the week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
emwmarine, Yes, that's exactly it. I was lucky enough to have two consecutive weeks in the second half of January. Its started and ended atrociously. The middle was better than average but not enough to polish the rest of it. Seared into my memory is arriving in a wet, green resort with man made brownish strips of pistes struggling to reach the valley. Skiing the first day in rain and 17c at 1800m and injuring my shoulder when my skis stuck fast in calf deep slush skiing down to a lift queue. As I left in warm sunshine and 18c the whole place was running like a river. That's what will stick in my memory of season 13/14.

Any time I mention this there seems to be a mass of people saying how great it was for them. Well, thats just smashing. Admittedly there are maybe people who were there before Xmas and in one or two particular weeks thereafter who will feel differently. But for me and I'm sure many thousands of others for whom skiing in 2013/14 was limited to a week or so in the Austrian Salzburgerland it was pretty crap.

It has an effect, if I go (Austrian) low in January it will be Saalbach or somewhere a bit higher than Zell. I'm going to go again in March but it will be Obergurgl. If other people feel the same then that effect is the lost bookings this season and beyond until 2013/14 is forgotten which is exactly what my hotelier and other businesspeople acquaintances in Zell feared. Sadly it seems that the summer of 2014 has been pretty poor for them too.

Back to the main point of my first post on this thread I hope that, for me, if by nothing else than the law of averages, season 2014/15 is better, if it's better for everyone else then that's good.
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robboj, yes, your points are fair and reasonable in context. Our clients mostly had a lovely time as the pistes in Chamonix were mostly in excellent shape. The off piste had a slow and dangerous start but ended up lasting well in the end. Whereas we skied quite a lot in northern Italy which had the most amazing season my wife can remember in 37 years of memory.
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robboj, WoW, didn't realise it was that bad in Jan
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robboj,

Looking back I can understand where you are coming from. If I remember whilst there had been a lot of early precipitation there was also a very warm spell. Where we are in Val Thorens, and for much of the 3vs it was high enough and cold enough to still be a good season on piste, although a bit scratchy off piste.

Friends of our went to Les Get and suffered the same as you and had to be bussed up to Avoriaz (i think).

So the other lesson is to go high.
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robboj, that does sound grim. there have been some claims that the more eastern areas had a much better start to the season than the French Alps, but from my memory and comments here at the time that wasn't the case. In the temperatures you describe the much-vaunted snow-making is pretty irrelevant.
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pam w It's a strange one. I feared for last winter. The previous poor snow in that region and IIRC just about everywhere had been 2006/07 and I was thinking this time last year the the same old law of averages must be getting to the thin end for a poor one but it seemed to start so well. There was a good base and good cover until about Xmas day when it warmed up and thereafter snowfall days apart often stayed horribly warm. The snow just never really settled for most of the main season. I don't know why but the man made stuff never seems to bind properly with the natural and especially where they have to move snow onto thin patches it never seems to work. As for the snow making itself the locals said that without it it would have been game over before mid term. So I suppose from their point of view it did what they paid for it to do - keep them open for business. That said they seemed resigned to the fact that like with me it won't have been the stuff of happy memories and it will affect bookings this season and maybe next unless they have a snowfest this winter.

I did see some stats somewhere for last winter in Salzburgerland and I think they pretty well met my perceptions. I can't find them now but it was something like second warmest, driest and sunniest or similar combination of such since records had begun in the mid 19th century.
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Hi,
I always go for enjoying skiing in France . I find most beautiful resorts and mountains there like Avoriaz & Saint Lary. Spring season is the best time to enjoy skiing there. Have a look at this to know more about skiing in France .
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ZAMG review of summer

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/kuehlster-sommer-seit-neun-jahren

- Coolest summer of last nine years.
- Although still +0.2C above long term average (Tirol -0.1C).
- Lowest sunshine level in last nine years too.
- Worst month was August. June and July relatively benign.

No suggestion of real cold in the Alps as we go into September, although could be a chilly start to the week otherwise looks quite warm.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
ZAMG review of summer

- Coolest summer of last nine years.


No suggestion of real cold in the Alps as we go into September, although could be a chilly start to the week otherwise looks quite warm.


I remember that summer 2005 wasn't great but friends of mine bought a property near Zell am See that autumn and it was glorious and warm. The winter of 2005/06 wasn't too bad either! wink snowHead snowHead
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Suddeutsche Zeitung on the summer weather

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/wetterbilanz-sommer-ohne-sonne-1.2108547

"Sommer ohne Sonne, Zu kalt, zu nass, zu dunkel"

Wide regional variations mind you with much of the worst weather being to the south (ie close to the Alps).

That said there is no real evidence to suggest one can draw any sort of sensible comparison better the weather in summer and the likely weather in autumn let alone winter.
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Looks like some fresh snowfall in the eastern Alps Sunday into Monday down to around 2000m in places.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snowy at Idalp (Ischgl) this morning...

http://www.ischgl.com/en/webcam-ischgl-tyrol
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 You know it makes sense.
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Quote:

No suggestion of real cold in the Alps as we go into September

Excellent. I still have my autumn walking holiday to come! I have had a week or so in the Alps every autumn since 2003 and I can discern no relationship between early cold and snow and the overall quality and/or quantity of snow during the ski season. And the "law of averages" is a myth. wink
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
1st Sept and thoughts turning back to winter again, love this time of year waiting to see the first cams showing a decent covering. Hope everyone has a fantastic season wherever and whenever your skis hit the white stuff snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w, Really? it may be statistically irrelevant, maybe even total rubbish, but its certainly not a myth.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/law+of+averages

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/content/item/6-the-law-of-large-numbers-/-the-law-of-averages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

I'm sure if I look here long enough I'll find a post from you stating that snow is in fact black. rolling eyes
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skinutter, Absolutely, I love it too, sitting with my coffee of a morning as every snowfall appears on the cams and watching as they gradually take longer to melt whilst wondering as the weeks go by if 'this one' is finally going to be the base Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
robboj, I've seen plenty of speculation, but there really is little to suggest a cold summer equals a warm winter or a cold one. The key bit of averages is that they will be average in the long run, but that leaves plenty of space for short or long term anomalies. That's what I reckon anyway.
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robboj, Wikipedia on the law of averages says
Quote:
As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle.


The law of large numbers is probably not too relevant to a discussion about two consecutive winters.

Throwing a coin and having three "heads" in a row does not make it any more likely than 50/50 that the next throw will be "tails".

This has nothing to do with the colour of snow wink though interestingly we had brown snow last year which came and went as successful layers of snow thawed. Sahara dust, they said. But I think it's more likely that after years of just having white snow the law of averages said we were bound to get a different colour.
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It's very simple. Go high enough and there will be snow on the main pistes from December to May.
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SLF on August (auf Deutsch).

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/wochenbericht/2013-14/0801/index_DE

Cold, changeable, high pressure never established itself for a lengthy period, snow down to 2000m on two occasions.

September looking a bit more mild and damp at present.
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Met Office contingency planners suggesting probability of milder than average September and Autumn as a whole for the UK. Though it is important to read the caveats. Possible weaker jet, pushed on a more southerly route as a result of increased blocking. That would also produce drier than average conditions if that was how it played out (though being Autumn you could still see heavy depressions pushing across at times). A more southerly jet could push more unsettled weather towards the Alps, but would not at this time of year bring cooler weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/o/A3_plots-temp-SON.pdf
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From nozawaonsen's link, the Met Office wrote:
There remains a chance that El Niño conditions may reinvigorate during the autumn with a weak event then considered most likely. A moderate strength El Niño cannot be discounted, but equally there is also a chance that El Niño conditions will fade completely.

Wonderful. Covered all the options. Whatever happens can claim to have got it right.
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robboj, it's quite funny that your wiki reference is discussing the fallacy of the "law of averages"
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Jonpim, they're trying to set out the range of probabilities of a finely balanced event. Maybe not the tightest drafting, but the point is that at this stage none of those outcomes can be excluded. Often by this time of year it's more clear cut. In any case the sentence that followed is probably more relevant.

"Either way, with El Niño conditions not yet established this factor is not expected to exert an influence on weather patterns in Europe during the next three months."

Here's some more on El Niño from NOAA.

Details on the September ENSO diagnostic discussion—late, or never?
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-september-enso-diagnostic-discussion—late-or-never
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