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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Or as they say oop North "ne'r cast a clat till May is aat", or somesuch crap.

Or in France "Les seins de glace" wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@davidof, my Nana always said that apparently it means the May blossom , i.e. the blossom of the blackthorn I believe.
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So was 2014/2015 one of the best years for a long time for weather? and I know there are still a couple of weeks to go.

Admittedly we had a bit of a slow start but we were in, and had people in, our apartment from 1st week December through to now. Whilst we didn't have the single huge dumps that we had over the last couple of years we seemed to have regular snow interspersed with sunshine. I think nearly every week other than one had a fair amount of sunshine. We had more comments about great weather and snow conditions than we normally do.

The cold March and snow towards the end of March meant that April has been fantastic. Just back from Val Thorens, closing things up, where the snow conditions are holding up well for the time of the year despite the hammering from 3 weeks of sun and warm temperatures. In fact with more snow at the weekend I might have left a light on and need to re-close up.

Smile

People were very nervous about the start of the season but it really does seem to me to have been a bit of a good year.

Question for the weather experts. Are there any stats that are available that summarise the weather for the season? mount of snow fallen? Hours of sunshine? etc etc.
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I dont know the exact stats but one thing I noticed in the January to March period is that there was not a long period of sunshine and mild temperatures across the alps. This season the temperatures seemed to mostly hover around average.

Regarding snow amounts, one area that will certainly come in below average willl be the Dolomites. I think that there was only one big dump of snow back in January. Several smaller falls after that, along with average temperatures, did ensure that the snow was topped up through to the end of the season. But overall the amount that fell over the season will, I'm certain, be well below average.

One area that definately had a good season regarding snow amounts will be the North West Italian ski region of Monte Rosa. That region had several huge snow dumps this season.
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I think I skied more days in marginal visibility this season than ever before but overall the season was average, maybe a bit better than the last one when foehn never stopped blowing. Still had a few epic days and a couple good ski tours, so can't complain. The only thing I am unhappy about is that temperatures are expected to drop again and snow is forecast when I feel like I am skied-out and ready for spring, but cold May after warm April seems to be the norm here…
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emwmarine wrote:
So was 2014/2015 one of the best years for a long time for weather? and I know there are still a couple of weeks to go.

Admittedly we had a bit of a slow start but we were in, and had people in, our apartment from 1st week December through to now. Whilst we didn't have the single huge dumps that we had over the last couple of years we seemed to have regular snow interspersed with sunshine. I think nearly every week other than one had a fair amount of sunshine. We had more comments about great weather and snow conditions than we normally do.

The cold March and snow towards the end of March meant that April has been fantastic. Just back from Val Thorens, closing things up, where the snow conditions are holding up well for the time of the year despite the hammering from 3 weeks of sun and warm temperatures. In fact with more snow at the weekend I might have left a light on and need to re-close up.

Smile

People were very nervous about the start of the season but it really does seem to me to have been a bit of a good year.

Question for the weather experts. Are there any stats that are available that summarise the weather for the season? mount of snow fallen? Hours of sunshine? etc etc.


Can only comment on where I am (Gasteinertal) but the first 4 or 5 weeks were a near write-off. That's a large chunk of the season. Overall worst season and the least I've skied for years.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
For the second season in a row it looks as though the West highlands has a depth of cover in excess of most of the Alps snowHead
Surely that carnt happen a third year running ?

Though the Dolomites have not had a lot of snow this year, they have had a very reliable season with almost no days lost to bad weather and few lift or piste closures since Christmas. an attractive factor for repeat visits.

Looks like some heavy snow arriving next week - bit late unfortunately Sad
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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emwmarine wrote:
So was 2014/2015 one of the best years for a long time for weather? and I know there are still a couple of weeks to go.


I'd say it was average at best. Certainly better than last season, but not as good as the two before.

We had a couple of good storms in the end and several pretty deep days (especially recently), but there was also a LONG dry period, followed by long period with seriously difficult avalanche conditions. I think I only skied two sunny powder days this season as conditions (and other people's behaviour) just felt too sketchy to get in the alpine a lot of the time. Some great storm skiing in the trees though.
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Quote:

I'd say it was average at best. Certainly better than last season, but not as good as the two before


I'd say it was a bit better than that in Haute Savoie - apart from Xmas week (bad) conditions in Les Contamines were consistently good without ever being epic. If you'd offered me it in November I'd have taken it
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@jedster, I think @clarky999, will be talking about Austria specifically Western Austria. Though on the whole I think average is about right. Unless you are from the Pyrenees.....in which case at times there was way too much snow.

@clarky999 what about the Gulmarg though....? Smile
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Anyone any thoughts on the suggestion of powder for Chamonix next mid-week?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
How to score a season?

I am surprised that nobody has come up with some sort of winter season score that would be easy to apply for each resort.

Something along the lines of number of hours of sunshine * number of days of snow between end Nov and end April * total cms of snow fallen * no of days temperature stayed below zero / special snow heads constant = ski quality season measure.

Simples. Surely Noza could drum up that information.
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emwmarine wrote:


People were very nervous about the start of the season but it really does seem to me to have been a bit of a good year.


Erm no, crap, and we had quite good cover for the Northern Alps in the local mountains: Belledonne, Vercors, Chartreuse. Apart from some snow in the second half of November not really skiable off piste until the second half of January. Some good conditions in the Jan-Feb period (about 6 weeks) but nothing really spectacular then very warm in March and a thaw about 2 / 3 weeks ahead of normal. Above average temperatures for the winter as a whole. Far worse than 2012/23 and 2013/14 which were both very good winters even if the weather was poor in 2013/14.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
emwmarine wrote:
So was 2014/2015 one of the best years for a long time for weather? and I know there are still a couple of weeks to go.


People were very nervous about the start of the season but it really does seem to me to have been a bit of a good year.

Question for the weather experts. Are there any stats that are available that summarise the weather for the season? mount of snow fallen? Hours of sunshine? etc etc.


Depends on where you were skiing, but the USA PNW had the worst winter on record. Snow pack is at less than 20% of normal. Glad the Alps had a good season though.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Interesting. But not only is the ski season quite different from place to place, it also depends a lot on what you want.
davidof wants lots of off-piste - that was limited in many areas (Tarentaise anyway) - but for piste skiers who want sunshine then the season was not at all bad.

emwmarine's Season Score might work, but it needs a bit of tweeking. The various factors are not independent: we did have days with temperatures below zero, and we did have days of snow, but far too often they didn't coincide. Result was The Wrong Sort of Snow, or for lower places: rain.

I quite like that different seasons have such different weather. Adapt and enjoy what you get. You can always have fun out there in the mountains, just do what is best in the circumstances.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Jonpim wrote:
but for piste skiers who want sunshine then the season was not at all bad.


Exactly, if you were skiing during the mid-Jan to mid-March period in resort then the season would have been good with most of the bad weather falling at the weekends this year. The bad weather didn't bother me much but we missed at least one storm cycle so lacked depth outside of resort runs.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Meteo France saw winter (in France as a whole) as pretty normal "Sans caractère exceptionnel..." though with a third consecutive year of heavy snow in the Pyrenees. Obviously that conceals a lot of regional variation even within the Alps.

http://www.meteofrance.fr/climat-passe-et-futur/bilans-climatiques/bilan-2015/bilan-climatique-de-l-hiver-2014-2015

You can see from the precipitation chart that much of the French Alps were drier than normal during winter (60-70% of normal).

For Austria HISTALP has the temperature in the Austrian mountains at 1C above average so the 34th warmest out of the last 164 yeara. Snowfall in the west was not far off average at -2% (69th driest in 157 years) in the south -11% (69th out of 161).

In terms of snowfall it was better in Austria than France (compared to the average), but neither saw above average snowfall.

Of course your own experience will depend on the conditions when you were skiing and the conditions you were hoping for.

I had great snow.

On each occasion I was lucky enough to arrive with a few days heavy snow followed by cloudless skies and sunshine.


http://youtube.com/v/KCJbevoZxWM


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 26-04-15 10:24; edited 1 time in total
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@davidof,

What makes perfect weather for your operation? A big fall in December then topped up with lots of reasonable but regular falls to stop the off piste being tracked out? Presumably, you would also want to avoid weather conditions that avoided high avalanche risk conditions as well.

Which year was the best in the Alps for off piste over the last few years?
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Here's SLF's review of 2014/15.

http://www.slf.ch/dienstleistungen/medien/medienmitteilungen_2015/winterrueckblick_2015/index_EN

Winter marked by relatively little snow and dangerous avalanche situation

"Winter review 2014/2015

The defining characteristic of winter 2014/2015 was the exceptionally below average snow depth in the early months. From the start of the new year, therefore, the snowpack was poorly bonded and contained critical weaknesses in the old layers. Throughout the entire winter, the snow cover across Switzerland below an altitude of 2000 m was shallower than the long-term average. At 32, the number of avalanche victims was above average. [22 is the long term average]

Commenting subjectively on the heavy snowfall at the end of March, just a few days before Easter, an SLF employee remarked, "This is the best powder snow we've seen all winter." His personal assessment was largely accurate from an objective perspective as well. The winter began on 6 November with heavy snowfall in the whole of the Alpine region, but in many places the quantities that fell then were not replicated during the rest of the season. High temperatures that threatened existing records in some cases severely curtailed the snow depth in the early winter. Many winter sport resorts in the altitude zone between 1500 and 1800 m reported an absence of snow in the majority of places over Christmas – for the first time since the winter of 1989/1990. Numerous resorts in this category in central and eastern Switzerland had never before recorded such relatively little snow in December."
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emwmarine wrote:
@davidof,

What makes perfect weather for your operation? A big fall in December then topped up with lots of reasonable but regular falls to stop the off piste being tracked out? Presumably, you would also want to avoid weather conditions that avoided high avalanche risk conditions as well.

Which year was the best in the Alps for off piste over the last few years?


12/13 was incredible, especially in January and February. I think it snowed more days than not during that epriod.
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And 11/12 wasn't bad either - in December 2011 we spent more energy digging the car out than skiing.

We've just had 2 exceptional years (11/12 and 12/13) followed by 2 rather miserly years.
Bring on 15/16! snowHead
Meantime, we just have to get through this ghastly thing called summer . . .
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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looks like a snowy end to the season. freezing level hovering around 700m this week in northern England with heavy snow showers due tonight over the top[s in the Dales.

Meanwhile its snowing heavily in the north west again today:

http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/

looks like a lot of new snow also bound for Argentierre in the run up to the last weekend there too snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Yes, am tempted - doesn't seem to be a huge amount open though, I assume if its cold enough to snow that low the snow will be good up high? I mean, the snow won't "know" its actually May and degrade as a result?
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Well, that was a short summer. Laughing

Winters back and the outlook for May in the UK is looking cooler than the long term average. Inevitably there is little interest in skiing though still plenty of snow about.

Check out the new snow at Glencoe this morning.

http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/ Shocked


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 29-04-15 11:51; edited 1 time in total
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8611 wrote:
Yes, am tempted - doesn't seem to be a huge amount open though, I assume if its cold enough to snow that low the snow will be good up high? I mean, the snow won't "know" its actually May and degrade as a result?


At this time of year teh sun is much stronger and will affect the snow quicker, 100%.
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The sun is strong but on an island like Great Britain so is the convection within this unstable air. Lapse rates are also at their highest at this time of year and also increase the further north you go. Not quite sure why ?

Check out the showers piling into the west right now.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So, when do we open the all new weather outlook thread for 15-16?

I am counting down the hours already.
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mheadbee wrote:
So, when do we open the all new weather outlook thread for 15-16?

I am counting down the hours already.


Hadn't you better wait for the season to finish? Pistes are still in reasonable shape at the top of the 3Vs.

Quite a few people skiing there at the moment and will be next week as well.
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First apologies if this has been covered, but on a train and a phone, what I want to know is the meteo France announcement of a record (as strong as 1997) El Niño good or bad for snow next season? Past performance is not a predictor accepted etc
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More snow overnight at Cairngorm. Freezing level down to 800m next 4 days. Outlook is good for some great late season skiing here at Glencoe and Cairngorm. snowHead
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@Mt, throwback Thursday!

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=111231&start=0

Link above is to the first page of this thread which has some discussion of ENSO and it's impacts. Remember that last June moderate El Niño conditions looked likely this winter, but though we were in that territory they never really established themselves.

Current forecasts for the coming northern hemisphere winter do however suggest a strong El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

On the plus side that might break the drought in California.

Good top up for Hintertux today. 40cm+.
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emwmarine wrote:
@davidof,

What makes perfect weather for your operation? A big fall in December then topped up with lots of reasonable but regular falls to stop the off piste being tracked out? Presumably, you would also want to avoid weather conditions that avoided high avalanche risk conditions as well.

Which year was the best in the Alps for off piste over the last few years?


What timescale are you looking at? A decade? 25 years? 40 years?

2013/14, bit of a slow start, skied Nov to May, some excellent ski days but average overall.

2012/13 was excellent. I skied from October thru to June but it wasn't super stable avalanche wise.

2011/12 had a warm autumn with a mega dump in the first week of December, we skied through to mid June with some excellent late season snow. Pretty stable due to good December snow cover.

2010/11, not much snow, average stability.

2009/10, skied from first week of November through to July - one of the best ends to the season since 2001.

haven't time to go further back at the moment.
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@nozawaonsen, is the common theory still, Strong El Nino = very snowy Sierra Nevada/Southern Rockies with a milder and drier northern rockies/Canada?

Whilst for Europe - weak El Nino conditions like the one in 2006/7 and the one finishing now CAN cause dry and mild seasons overall, whereas Strong El Nino the last being 2009/10 weaken the Polar Vortex, thus releasing cold air south helping to make a pretty epic season?

I think I'm right, though of course this is a global viewpoint and does not account for all local weather patterns/systems.
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Quote:


Hadn't you better wait for the season to finish? Pistes are still in reasonable shape at the top of the 3Vs.

Quite a few people skiing there at the moment and will be next week as well


Nope, my ski season is over. Looking forward to next year now.
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AthersT wrote:
[b]

Whilst for Europe - weak El Nino conditions like the one in 2006/7 and the one finishing now CAN cause dry and mild seasons overall, whereas Strong El Nino the last being 2009/10 weaken the Polar Vortex, thus releasing cold air south helping to make a pretty epic season?

I think I'm right, though of course this is a global viewpoint and does not account for all local weather patterns/systems.


09/10 was a prety poor season overall IIRC. I thought the NAO has a bigger efect on Europe than El Nino?
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It's obvious how to measure the anxiety levels over a seasons Weather.

all new weather 14/15 - 80 pages and still going (just) - 392k views
all new weather 13/14 - 63 pages and forgotten - 296k views
all new weather 12/13 - 52 pages and wiped out - 271k views
all new weather 11/12 - 73 pages and down - 440k views

So this season according to snow heads had the greatest recent anxiety inducements, followed by 11/12, followed by 13/14 with 12/13 cruising home with very little comment.

There, that seems the best judge of a seasons weather. Looking forward to the Solstice and Noza's traditional start for the new season. Very Happy
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@emwmarine, +1^

On the scoring idea I've often thought that such a system must've been thought of and rejected. Too many expensively constructed resorts might not score too well?

As for next season I'm fed up with nervous autumns and hope for a very snowy start with everywhere opening on time or early with so much snow that even if its average after New Year it makes no significant difference.
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Peter S wrote:
Lapse rates are also at their highest at this time of year and also increase the further north you go. Not quite sure why ?


Research data shows that's not actually the case but an effect of boundary layer (850 hpa height) PM air interacting with energetic daytime sunshine (convective) warming at higher latitudes (50 degrees +) may be that it appears that way at the altitude of the UK's ski lifts (600m-1,200m). If our ski fields were at the higher altitudes typical of the Alps (1,500m-3,000m), the lapse rate should be seen to be lower ...

"The latitudinal variation of tropospheric temperature lapse rate is examined on the basis of recently published data for the northern hemisphere. In January, the lapse rate systematically decreases from 6.4°C/km. for the equator to 3.6°C/km. for 70°N; in July, the lapse rate is nearly constant in respect of latitude between the equator and 50°N, but decreases from the latter poleward. The average January–July lapse rate decreases systematically from 6.3°C/km. for the equator to 4.7°C/km. for 70°N. This variation is closely described by the equation βϕ=6.25−2 sin4ϕ, where βϕ is the lapse rate, in °C/km, for latitude ϕ. For the north pole, the equation gives a lapse rate of 4.25°C/km."

P.S. @robboj, do you ever ski in Scotland ?
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Thanks for that Ross.
Still no sign of a warm up. Uk weather looks trapped in early spring well into June this year. Should help preserve the snow cover for those mid summer turns.
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@emwmarine, that doesn't control for the growth of the SHs population.
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