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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
No to rain! That can bug off ...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
There will be rain, there's no doubt about that. The only question is the altitude at which it turns to snow. How MUCH precipitation is also an open question.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
anything below 1500m it seems will be rain.....could even be a bit higher.......
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Quote:

could even be a bit higher......

or even a lot higher at times, if Meteo France is right. 1800/2000m in many places (including Les Saisies and Ste Foy) according to MF - but that's Monday, and light rain. They see little or no precipitation at the weekend whereas snow-forecast foresees Biblical quantities of precipitation on Sunday. Laughing

I suspect the truth is that the evolution is very uncertain and a huge range of possible outcomes are equally possible. We shall see.
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metoex.com also goes for a lot of rain Sunday night clearing monday morning!!!!!............
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Quote:

1800/2000m in many places

Please no... is there anything more dispiriting in a ski resort than rain? Sad
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
meteox now goes for longer rain or snow depending on the FL right throught to late monday.

not sure what forecasting system they base theirs one, but it was bloody accurate on Boxing Day!!!!!!!!!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rainman wrote:
Quote:

1800/2000m in many places

Please no... is there anything more dispiriting in a ski resort than rain? Sad


Just ski above 1800m Smile
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@kitenski, if it's 1800, I'll *just about* be alright snowHead
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if it was to drop to 1500m then I think a lot of places would benefit from whatever falls out the ski. At 2000m, its going to be a very wet and miserable day or two.

Cham-meteo giving poor confidence on all recent reports so case of lottery how it will play out. What i cant really get my head around is why a NW airstream would be as warm as it is looking to be? If it was South or SW I could understand it but northerly in my book = cool/cold and decent snowfall in the majority of cases as it hits the pre-alps
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Extended Weather Forecast (as reported by Météo-France Savoie) for Savoie and the N French Alps

Snow then back to sunny skies and warm temperatures!



Saturday 28th: N to NW winds, gusting up to 60 km/hr at altitude. Cloudy at times. 0° at 2000 m. Snow/precipitation starting.



Sunday 29th & Monday 30th: Sunday: Llight snow down to 1300 m. Monday: Snow, some bright spells and temperatures up to 0° at 2200 m. Strong NW wind at altitude.



Tuesday 31st & Wednesday 1st April: NW weatherly system continuing, with gusts up to 60 km/hr. Tuesday snow then Weds: sun and bit of high cloud, both days very warm: 0° at 3000 m at times duriing the day.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
rainman wrote:
Quote:

1800/2000m in many places

Please no... is there anything more dispiriting in a ski resort than rain? Sad


I think you need to change your username wink Your putting a jinx on the Freezing level Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.

Reason for optimism in the next few days!
These are for Chamonix.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I'd like that much better if that precipitation didn't coincide with practically every run predicting above average temperatures.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
yep, that green spike is the stuff of dreams.....but not when the FL is on close to the summits Shocked
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So, here's a question for you. All these GFS wigglies have a 30-Jahres-Mittel line in red which I take to be a 30-year average. Yet they're never flat and, indeed, show a wobble with a period of about 6 days. How come?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I would imagine because its generally its colder at night that in the daytime. Also there is a variation in the various models the GFS is pulled from so even 2 or 3 days out there is a little bit of difference in the sguigglies.

Please remember also the level at which snow falls can be a few hundred metres lower that the FL especially the further east you are. Fingers crosssed!!

The majority of the skiing Chamonix is high so if you stay high you wont get wet wink

Agreed though I hate it when it rains in a ski resort Evil or Very Mad snowHead
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@hedley, it's more based on my amazing card-counting and memory skills wink
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Ah fook it I'm leaving in 9 hours I'll ski on what there is
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@Boris, That's the spirit
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Snow at altitude all the way out for Scotland. Rain, snow, rain for the Lakes into next week.

MetO long term outlook into mid April is changeable but with spells of further snow and frost in the north. Sounds reasonable for Spring skiing, but will the demand still be there...........compared with all the enthusiasm back in November ? snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Parts of the Alps are going to see some pretty heavy snowfall in the coming week.



More tricky though is the freezing level which will be high at times (1500-2100m) and also strong winds in places for the start of next week.

But plenty of snow to fall at altitude in many areas.
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Any thoughts on the likelihood of that FL moving lower as the weekend unfolds...seems Cham-meteo giving confidence only to tomorrow at the moment.
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France


The rest of today (Friday) will see cloud gradually breaking up across the northern Alps to allow some decent spells of sunshine. The southern Alps will be generally clearer. Freezing levels will be between 1400 and 1700m.



Saturday should be mostly dry, but cloud will thicken across the northern Alps with a little rain possible in the far north later (snow 1800m).



Sunday will be mostly cloudy with rain or snow (1500-1700m), becoming heavy in the northern Alps later in the day. The far southern Alps should remain dry with variable cloud.



Monday will see further heavy rain/snow (1500m) in the north, dying out later.
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I really like using raintoday.co.uk and wondered if there was a European equivalent. I hunted round and found this - anybody know of anything better?

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html

...just found this which is a bit better

http://www.radareu.cz/?lng=en
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.

Cham meteo is keeping his powder dry, but based on this ensemble some significant precipitation is arriving on Monday in Chamonix, we have some high altitude real estate round here, so not worrying too much about the snow line but 1500m would be nice.
20cm would set us up for Easter nicely.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@jbob, wouldn't be unhappy seeing that.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@under a new name, well his powder is dry no longer, he just posted this!!

MONDAY MARCH 30
Bad northwesterly weather - heavy precipitation in the morning
SKY CONDITION : overcast. Period of sunshine close to 0%.
PRECIPITATION : heavy in the morning - getting lighter towards the middle of the day - rain-snow limit towards 1600 m - expected snwofall towards 2000 m since previous evening : 50-60 cm.
WIND - aloft : NW strong - gale at times.
TEMPERATURE : low +3°C - high +11°C.
Very uncertain.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@jbob, wow! That changes a few things!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Meteo France are more pessimistic about the rain/snow level - they reckon 1900 - 2300m Sunday/Morning. Sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Shocked I'm pretending I didn't see that. Will be a nightmare at 2000m+
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@skinutter, meteo france are very often wrong - that's what I keep telling myself! Chamonix Meteo is usually pretty good. But it seems the weather signs are still a bit all over the place.
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Dancing here a lot lol 50cm of fresh will be great, 48 hrs of steady rain may just ruin a week with warm temps behind it too.

Snoooooooooooooooooooooooooowww please snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead
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Lovely up brevent first thing, sunny, mild. That's what we want from now till end October. Cool

But not what's forecast ...
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keeping the faith for the Arlberg cold n snowy approach to Easter...

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Easter is looking cold.

Both ECM and GFS have cold air pouting down from the north.



Temperatures falling -8C below normal for the time of year.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
what confidence of that cold spell @nozawaonsen, given it's still a week away??

May have to buy some mittens for my eldest who suffers with cold hands!!
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@kitenski, still a week away so still time for it to shift in one direction or another, but it does have a fair amount of support. Mind you it'll be cold for April rather than cold for January.
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Looks like a wet'n'wild few days out there - good luck to those starting their week's hols tomorrow! Shocked
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