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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Temp plunging in the lakes and pennines right now. Currently minus 2.3c at 2750' humidity down Below 30 percent today !
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like some fell as snow at resort level in 3 valleys though totally foggy / whiteout on the webcams atm
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

totally foggy / whiteout on the webcams atm


like that here in Les Saisies, too. Few centimetres of soggy snow, generally grotty. The warm sun was infinitely preferable. wink wink
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Well, here in La Plagne we had more snow overnight - about 10cm. Made for a lovely morning skiing. Some cloud, but mainly blue skies. A bit heavy lower down, but higher up lovely soft snow. Spent the morning non-stop between-runs-off-piste. Marmalised. Time for lunch.
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The Arlberg



Chamonix



Zermatt



Les Deux Alpes



Heavy snow heading for Aosta Valley/Zermatt midweek (though uncertainty about quite how much - see the outlier in the chart above). Snowline around 1400m as it arrives dropping to 700m by Thursday.

Generally colder and unsettled in the second half of the week.

FI is producing some heavy snowfall the following week in the northern Alps, but largely operational outliers for now.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen. Been missing your vintage pics. wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
About 20cms of fresh snow in Stubai today, deeper where the wind had piled it up. Very fun skiing when the sun came out. Watch out for rocks though - I hit (at speed) what I thought was a mogul but was actually a rime-covered rock and I'm pretty sure I get a full front flip as I double ejected...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
5-15cm overnight in Tignes depending on altitude. Expecting some in the week and a small cool down. After that all bets are off - Meteo France only giving confidence of 2/5 for next weekend and their interpretation is widely different to some of the populist sites. 'Life's a box of chocolates' etc
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The last few GFS operational runs have gone for a decidently cold start to April with temperatures in the Alps 8C below normal on the 18z. Accompanied by heavy snow in the northern Alps.



It's too far out to take seriously, but worth keeping an eye on.

In the meantime snowfall midweek in the Alps followed by colder temperatures.
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"Has there ever been a snow season like this?"

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/has-there-ever-been-snow-season-like.html?m=1
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@nozawaonsen, am I understanding correctly, anything less than 300 inches is considered very poor. That's 750cm! Is that because much lighter snow there does little for snowpack?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It's because it has been unusually warm.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Forecast on the week seems to be becoming less unsettled by the minute , looks like I may be going touring after all Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Any thoughts (beyond snowforecast) on Andermatt for the end of this week?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
metoex...still going for a fair bit of precipitation this week and fri/sat...........question will be where the FL is

fingers crossed its snow below 1500m
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
My fingers are crossed too @stefoy4me, snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@stefoy4me, oh boy, I hope so... I'm too afraid to look now.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
was a suggestion of crazy high FL over the weekend, 3000m on one report i read with something falling from the sky. I am hoping that is not the case and the precip is white and fluffy at mid mountain levels!
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in which part of the Alps Nutter ??
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Just keeping an eye on the forecasts using Snow Forecast for week commencing 28th March. It's showing what seems like quite warm temperatures generally; around as high as 13˚ on valley floor˚ 1400m 8˚ and 2100m 4˚ but it seems to be dry at least. Frezing level as high as 3000m + Shocked

We are staying at Val Cenis and at least slopes are North facing. Is this going to be a major slush fest for everyone out that week? Shocked
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At times like this it's good to remind yourself that:

a. weather forecasts more than 3 days out are a bit of a waste of time, and
b. for times when the GFS runs show a big disparity snow-forecast is a lot of a waste of time.

wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Yes I am noticing that these big snowfalls forecast on Snow forecast.com do not seem to materialise. Anyway I'll be keeping all parts crossed hoping that it cools down bit.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

I am noticing that these big snowfalls forecast on Snow forecast.com do not seem to materialise

snow forecast is picking out just one of the many possible outcomes from the GFS weather model. Sometimes it over-predicts the snow, as a result. But just as often it under-predicts. But nobody notices those times. wink If you look at the GFS you get a much better idea than looking at snow-forecast. And where the runs are all over the place you can be certain that it's uncertain.
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Noobie (and potentially dumb!) question; what does GFS stand for and where can I find them? Thanks
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Pdsmark, Google "GFS", and 6th on the list is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System rolling eyes
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Thanks @Jonpim.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@pam w, Absolutely - but as an explanation for the widely differing forecasts this weekend it appears from the Surface Pressure Charts that the deciding factor is a ridge of high pressure may build (and block) the precipitation or it may not build and it will snow at least down to the Dam (in my neck of the woods). Unfortunately, the models cannot decide if its going to happen - which is why Meteo France only has a 2/5 confidence level for Saturday.

@Pdsmark, As you would expect GFS is highly complex - but if you go to the link below the graphical display gives you an idea what is happening. You can then narrow it down to France or wherever but I find if you look at the big picture first (twice a day at least) you get a feel for how things may develop and the erratic nature of weather. Obsessing over a point in space in a weeks time will only lead to disappointment.........

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@chocksaway, I have a good feel for the meteo and developments in the UK because of my years of watching surface pressure charts for sailing winds. But down here in the Alps I feel much less clued up - thanks for that explanation.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
SLF forecast for Switzerland.

"Weather forecast through Wednesday, 25.3.2015

The night will be clear at times only in the east, otherwise mostly cloudy. In the morning there will be isolated bright spells in the east. It will be cloudy elsewhere. In the afternoon snowfall will arrive from the west above approximately 1200 m. In the south snow will fall all day above approximately 1000 m.

Fresh snow

From Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening the following amounts of snow will fall:

Main Alpine ridge from the Monte Rosa to southern Goms, Val Bedretto: 20 to 40 cm

Rest of the main Alpine ridge from the Great St Bernhard Pass to the Splügen Pass and to the south, Aletsch region: 10 to 20 cm

Other regions: a few centimetres, remaining dry in the east

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: about 0 °C

Wind

During the night moderate to strong for a while from the south, during the day light to moderate, veering easterly."
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
FI is being a bit of a tease for the Easter weekend in the Arlberg...

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@kitenski, the models can't seem to decide more than a couple of days ahead at the moment can they.

That temperature plunge and precipitation around Easter seems to have been on the cards for a while now BUT not much confidence..I just hope the FL come down a bit later this week.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Temp drop around the start of the month has disappeared again on the 00z Evil or Very Mad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
yes looks like rain to highish levels when it comes Sat/Sun below 1500m and quite probably up to 1800m

meteox still seem to be going for more precipatation than others.

someone drag that FL down
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The snowline on Sunday/Monday looks like being around 1500m, 1300m in the Eastern Alps. Snowfall looks like being accompanied by strong winds on Sunday and Monday.



This morning's GFS has shifted away from a cold spell over Easter, but ECM is still backing it.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
seems to be a very high level of uncertainty at the moment, almost knife-edge in terms of heat or cold, rain or snow. I'm fairly confident that we'll see some fresh snow w/c 6th April snowHead snowHead snowHead
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It is fascinating to read all this weather stuff, many thanks, I'm learning just how complicated the weather can be in the Alps.

Whilst working as a rep in Morzine season 92/93 I remember being very confused as to how we had poor snow whilst a colleague in the Southern French Alps was reporting great conditions. I think now I'm beginning to understand.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I have no idea what I'm looking at there Shocked

I'm off to flaine on Sat so a little dump over there please.

LB
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
leeboy wrote:
I have no idea what I'm looking at there Shocked

I'm off to flaine on Sat so a little dump over there please.

LB


Take a look at this for explanation of the wigglies.

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/03/25/basis12/euro/prec/15033000_2512.gif

more and more precip appearing for sunday night/Monday morning. my guess is FL of 2000. perfect for some, hellish for others. proboably poor vis day Monday. better Tuesday onwards. Val T for me, so up in the gods.
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Forecasts based on GFS are predicting a lot of precipitation for the weekend but given the likely FL many of us would probably not be too unhappy if they're wrong! Meteo France and Chamonix Meteo much more cautious - the latter stressing the very uncertain outlook.
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