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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Daleskier,
Not sure I included any politics except saying we should err on the green side. I agree this looks a good start. These consistent little top ups are just what the Doctor ordered.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Meantime in the real world some ski resorts are getting tired with so many prophecies of doom. Kitzbuhel made big local news last year when they published how it has been getting colder at the ski resort in the last 20 years:
http://tinyurl.com/o5jpvzx

And the snow record for either Eurasia or the Northern Hemisphere shows a cyclical oscillation but no declining trend:



http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/svg/mapfile_monthlyanom.php?ui_month=10&ui_region=eurasia

Actually that chart above is October. The winter shows an increasing trend:


http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=eurasia&ui_season=1
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@cota4000, welcome to SHs.

Very interesting. And I like your colours snowHead
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Meteo Swiss gives alert 3 (orange) due to snowfall up to 1 m in the Alps. Meteoexploration shows really nice colours (purple, which is not very frequent). Watch for the Avalanches, that snow is not going to be stable for a while.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This is a contentious issue and one where it is particularly difficult to seperate the signal from the noise.

But to my mind there's a pretty clear trend for temperatures in the Alps rising over the last 150 to 230 years (the figures in the link below are from HISTALP for Austria, but they are broadly the same across the Alps). Interestingly if you look at the bottom chart for the moutain region (Gipfelregionen) you can easily see the reduction in temperature from the 1990s that Kitzbuhel were trying to highlight. What they failed to show is the previous 140 years of data which would have made it clear that that it is still part of a longer term warming trend. Of course its hard to know whether the earlier warming is going to be reversed in the coming years (or whether the cooling is a pause before continued warming). But maybe it shows that one might want to be a little circumspect about how the data is being presented.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp/download/newsletter/poster/Oesterreich-Klimareihen-Winter_1767-2014.pdf

There is a fair amount of research to suggest that since the middle of last century snowfall levels dropped particularly during the 80s/90s. We've enjoyed some good years in the last 10 years which has turned the trend somewhat, but when looking at snowfall levels the altitude is important and the clear rising temperatureis also likely to be matched by a reduction in snowfall at lower levels (and some evidence to suggest a shortening of the season). Conversely this could also be matched by an increase in snowfall at higher altitudes (which may also be showing up in some of the graphs) with greater precipitation falling (so heavier rainfall lower down and heavier snow higher up).

A couple of quotes from SLF research over the last few years:

"The results show a surprisingly uniform warming of 0.8°C during the last three decades at the six investigated mountain stations. The long-term snow measurements reveal no change in mid-winter, but decreasing trends (especially since the 1980s) for the solid precipitation ratio, snow fall, snow water equivalent and snow depth during the melt season due to a strong temperature increase of 2.5°C in the spring and summer months of the last three decades."

"All the stations, even the highest one, show a decrease in extreme snow depth, which is mainly significant at low altitudes (below 800 m). A negative trend is also observed for extreme snowfalls at low and high altitudes but the pattern at mid-altitudes (between 800 and 1,500 m) is less clear. The decreasing trend of extreme snow depth and snowfall at low altitudes seems to be mainly caused by a reduction in the magnitude of the extremes rather than the scale (variability) of the extremes. This may be caused by the observed decrease in the snow/rain ratio due to increasing air temperatures."

But as I say it's a tricky subject.
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Back to the near term.

Here's an extract from this evening's SLF (looking at Switzerland obvioulsy).

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

"Weather forecast through Monday

In northern regions skies will be generally overcast. Above approximately 1700 m some snowfall is anticipated. In southern regions intensive snowfall is expected. The snowfall level will be at approximately 1800 m; in the upper alpine valleys at approximately 1500 m.

Fresh snow

Between Sunday evening and Monday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected above approximately 2000 m:

- Simplon region, central sector of southern flank of the Alps: 50 to 80 cm
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from Great St. Bernard to the Bernina Pass, Val Poschiavo: 30 to 50 cm
- regions bordering to the north: 15 to 30 cm
- remaining regions: less; in the furthermost northeastern regions, next to no snowfall

Temperature

at midday at 2000 m, +2 °C in northern regions and +4 °C in southern regions

Wind

moderate strength southerly winds, at high altitudes blowing at strong velocity

Outlook through Wednesday

In southern regions persistent snowfall above approximately 1500 to 1800 m is expected on both days. In northern regions, skies on Tuesday will be bright due to foehn wind influence, on Wednesday predominantly overcast. The avalanche danger is expected to increase still further in southern regions, already on Tuesday possibly reaching danger level 4 (high) from place to place. In northern regions, the avalanche danger level is not expected to change significantly on either day."

And here's some GFS ensembles for areas likely to see the most snowfall in the next few days:

Zermatt



Les Deux Alpes



Sestriere



Folgaria




http://youtube.com/v/kXuZAXKnlyw
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Met Office contingency planners suggesting +NAO likely into December. That would mean an increased likelihood of the Atlantic sending low pressure systems into the Alps and in general a slightly wetter and warmer pattern for the start of winter. Conversely there are also some suggestions that this basic pattern could be upset by a weaker polar vortex which could allow much colder weather to push down over Europe.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/4/A3_plots-temp-NDJ_v2.pdf

Of course if the wet weather piling on from the west could meet the cold weather driving down from the north...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:


Of course if the wet weather piling on from the west could meet the cold weather driving down from the north...


No doubt some spammer can recommend a good introduction agency
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Of course if the wet weather piling on from the west could meet the cold weather driving down from the north...


Touchwood/anti-jynx/etc !!!!!
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This evening's SLF. A lot more snow at altitude.

"In the south a high avalanche danger will be encountered in some regions

...

Fresh snow

Between Sunday evening and Monday evening above approximately 2200 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered:

- Val Bedretto and valleys of Maggia: 50 to 80 cm
- Zermatt, Saastal, Simplon region, southern Goms, remaining central sector of southern flank of the Alps, Val Bregaglia: 30 to 50 cm
- regions bordering to the immediate north as well as remaining part of the Valais sector of Main Alpine Ridge: 15 to 30 cm, elsewhere less or no snow at all

...

Weather forecast through Tuesday, 11.11.2014

Fresh snow

Between Monday evening and Tuesday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected above approximately 2000 m:

- Zermatt, Saas Fee, Simplon region, southern Goms, central sector of southern flank of the Alps: 50 to 80 cm, in western Ticino as much as 100 cm and more
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from Great St. Bernard to the Bernina Pass, Val Poschiavo: 30 to 50 cm
- regions bordering to the north: 15 to 30 cm, elsewhere dry

...

Wednesday

In southern regions heavy snowfall is anticipated with the focal point in the Valais sector of the Main Alpine Ridge and in western Ticino. The snowfall level will be at approximately 1800m."
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Already more than 50 cm measured at some stations in Ticino and Valais:

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/messwerte/stationsdaten/index_EN
http://www.slf.ch/fragment/chart.html?station=SPN2&type=snow&lang=en
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Zermatt and Cervinia look like the're taking a pasting, from webcams, - Will it continue? Its very quiet out there from the meteorology kings snowHead


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 12-11-14 19:50; edited 1 time in total
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What does this mean for les gets? Looking at snowforecast (I know, I know- but it is the easiest to understand even though it talks nonsense) it looks like a monsoon this week.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The snowfall has all but stopped here in Cervinia (2,100m) after a very heavy bout of snowfall over the past 72 hours. Some fair (ish)weather expected tomorrow and Friday before Saturday, where currently another good snowfall is expected.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
mheadbee wrote:
What does this mean for les gets? Looking at snowforecast (I know, I know- but it is the easiest to understand even though it talks nonsense) it looks like a monsoon this week.


I guess, and Nosa is the expert, it means that Les Gets will be rainy and green until the rain/snow level falls down to something approaching 1000M. I know friends of our skied there the last week december whilst we were in Val Thorens and they had to be bussed up to Avoriaz.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Laughing Chose to head to Zermatt this season rather stick with St anton (as per the last 2) looks like the right choice has been made (crosses everything and hopes not jinxed now)
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mbydmt, - a great choice. Be there myself in Feb. Best there is. However on a snow front, guaranteed to get the stuff. Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

What does this mean for les gets?

yes, it's quite warm, and very wet. But it's not even mid November. Whatever is on the ground now, at middle/lower levels, has very little to say about what will be happening when the resorts open shortly before Christmas. Don't panic.....
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Like @pam w, says temperatures have been pretty warm recently.

Geneva has a +3.12C anomaly for the last 30 days.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

Radstadt has +4.25C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn11147_30.gif

So although there is heavy snow falling at altitude in some parts of the Alps overall autumn has been mild. Aberdeen is currently +2.11C.

That of course means very little for the main season or even early season in the Alps.

As it happnes this evening's 18z GFS headed noticeably cooler in the last 10 days of November. Of course that's in FI, but it has been cropping up in several runs over the last two days so maybe something that will start to firm up in the next few days?
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This evening's SLF has the following figures

"Between Sunday evening and Wednesday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered above approximately 2400 m:

- Val Bedretto and valleys of Maggia: 120 to 180 cm, from place to place more than 200 cm
- Simplon region, southern Goms, remaining sectors of southern flank of the Alps: 80 to 120 cm
- remaining regions along the Main Alpine Ridge from Zermatt to the Bernina Pass: 30 to 60 cm
- regions bordering immediately to the north as well as the remaining regions of the Valais part of the Main Alpine Ridge: 15 to 30 cm; in the furthermost western regions, just a few centimeters; elsewhere, dry"

Looking forward to next Saturday.

"On Saturday skies in northern regions will be variably cloudy as a result of foehn wind influence; in southern regions there will be snowfall above approximately 1800 m which could be intensive from region to region."
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Did any of the recent southern snow land on the pyrenees?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Not as far as I am aware or at least not in the quantities that have fallen in parts of the Alps. Much of the recent snowfall has been at the western end and southern side of the Alps.
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A little bit on the Pyrenees, but 10-15 cm at most.

You can check the Nivoses from météo France: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/


Or the Spanish hydrological information system, this is for a hut on the northern slopes of Aneto, Pyrenees highest peak: http://www.saihebro.com/saihebro/index.php?url=/datos/graficas/tag:N007Z02NIEVE , which shows most of the snow fall 10 days ago:



Or you can check the hindcast from meteoexploration, although these are modelled data:
http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Aneto/?lang=en&module=hindcast

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thanks alot @cota4000,
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Quote:

pam w
super-snowHead
Posts: 40709
Location: le Beaufortain, France or Chichester Harbour

Quote:

What does this mean for les gets?

yes, it's quite warm, and very wet. But it's not even mid November. Whatever is on the ground now, at middle/lower levels, has very little to say about what will be happening when the resorts open shortly before Christmas. Don't panic...



Don't worry, no panicking going on over here. I have been in this game long enough to know the only time you should panic is when you have a week to go, the pistes are green grass and the forecast is showing warm weather. I tend to look at snowforecast as it it easy to read and follow, however it does tend to exaggerate things. When it says loads of rain in reality it could be snow as it is not taking the temp or other factors into account hence the question.
I am not going for another 12 weeks and this will be my 8th consecutive year to PdS and it has only (slightly) let me down once.
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It's happened. I'm now checking this thread every day.

Must be nearly time to go skiing snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

When it says loads of rain in reality it could be snow as it is not taking the temp or other factors into account hence the question.

Puzzled I don't think that's the case. But they're just using algorithms to convert what GFS says, as far as I know. So it does take altitude, temperature etc into account but apart from the fact that it only reflects one of the weather models it also (more importantly I think) fails to reflect the certainty/uncertainty of the GFS. You can look at GFS and see whether the different runs are so all over the place that it's not really worth thinking about. The better forecasts (chamonix-meteo.com is probably quite useful for Les Gets) do indicate a level of reliability as well as interposing a human brain between what the models produce and what the weather forecast says.

I might be wrong about all or some of that - but it's what I've gathered, over the years.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

pam w
super-snowHead
Posts: 40730
Location: le Beaufortain, France or Chichester Harbour

Quote:

When it says loads of rain in reality it could be snow as it is not taking the temp or other factors into account hence the question.

Puzzled I don't think that's the case. But they're just using algorithms to convert what GFS says, as far as I know. So it does take altitude, temperature etc into account but apart from the fact that it only reflects one of the weather models it also (more importantly I think) fails to reflect the certainty/uncertainty of the GFS. You can look at GFS and see whether the different runs are so all over the place that it's not really worth thinking about. The better forecasts (chamonix-meteo.com is probably quite useful for Les Gets) do indicate a level of reliability as well as interposing a human brain between what the models produce and what the weather forecast says.

I might be wrong about all or some of that - but it's what I've gathered, over the years.



So we agree it is unreliable on its own then?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
It's generally pretty reliable in the short term and over many years now I have found their forecast of the amounts of snow as accurate as those of Meteo France (not the toughest competition, admittedly). Their forecast of temperature is usually pretty good - provided you don't look too many days ahead. I find that, combined with looking at GFS and reading this thread, I have a pretty good feel for what's going on. Though this far ahead (I'm not going out till 19 Dec) I certainly won't be looking every day.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Looks like a reasonable amount of snow falling over much of the Alps this weekend. The Swiss Italian border continues to look favoured, but lighter snow showers should spread further east into Austria with the snowline dropping to around 1300m at times.



Temperatures in general are still remaining relatively mild for the time of year. So despite some heavy snow higher up we are still waiting for temperatures to fall sufficiently for low level snow to fall and stay. Mind you we're not yet half way through November. End of next week, next weekend currently looks quite mild after that uncertainty.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Early December opening is looking a bit optimistic below glacier level at the mo.
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Peter S wrote:
Early December opening is looking a bit optimistic below glacier level at the mo.


Not really.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Peter S wrote:
Early December opening is looking a bit optimistic below glacier level at the mo.


What on earth makes you think that ??
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A lot can happen in 3 weeks and usually does. A few resorts seem to be getting a nice base built up at altitude. We don't have a blocking high - famous last words!! Many years there has been virtually nothing at all yet. My impression is for the Southern and Western Alps that we are better off than the average at this point; with the snowline slowly making it's way down the slopes. Some of the high Austrian resorts are also doing pretty well.
Holidays now booked in Switzerland, Austria and Italy. A vote of confidence in the weather gods.
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@Peter S, I am sure you are right, after all Verbier opened last weekend, 2 weeks early, because there was no snow.....Oh...wait that's not the reason!
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http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php

Chamonix Meteo, are currently beta testing live rainfall radar on their site.
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HoneyBunny wrote:
It's happened. I'm now checking this thread every day.

Must be nearly time to go skiing snowHead


only once a day . do keep up Laughing
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Some very fickle FI output at present with the period after next weekend switching from very mild to very cold from run to run and the operational and control very wide apart. 18zGFS op run has just produced a very cold run. We'll see tomorrow if it can generate any support.
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No snow forecast for Zermatt village. Webcams show 10cm plus outside the church! Very Happy
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Tarantaise should look pretty when the sun comes up Smile
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