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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@diarmuidlynch, looks to me like @FreeBeer, was quoting the SLF. Which Swiss mountain were you looking at and was it one of the ones referred to in the forecast?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Thanks noz, keep up the good work.
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Extracts from SLF's update from last night.

"At high altitudes in southern regions, high avalanche danger regionally

On Wednesday, 05.11, high avalanche danger (Level 4) prevails in the Simplon region and in northern Ticino...

In the remaining sectors of the Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn to the Bernina Pass and in the remaining regions southwards therefrom, the avalanche danger level is considerable (Level 3)...

Weather, review through Tuesday, 04.11.

On Tuesday there was heavy snowfall in southern regions, in northern regions skies were overcast, and in western regions snowfall set in. The snowfall level was at approximately 2000 m. A storm velocity southerly wind was blowing.
Between Monday midday and Tuesday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered above approximately 2500 m:

- Simplon region and central sector of southern flank of the Alps: 30 to 50 cm
- regions bordering immediately to the north: 10 to 30 cm
remaining regions: less or no snow

Weather, forecast through Wednesday, 05.11.

In southern regions it is expected to snow intensively. In northern regions, snowfall will set in from the west on Tuesday night which is expected to persist throughout the day on Wednesday. The snowfall level in northern regions will drop down to approximately 1000 m and in southern regions to about 1700 m. During the night, a strong to storm-velocity southerly wind is expected to prevail, blowing during the day at moderate to strong velocity.

By Wednesday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are anticipated:

- Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn into Val Müstair and southwards therefrom: above approximately 2500 m, 50 to 80 cm; in the Simplon region and in northern Ticino as much as 100 cm
- regions bordering immediately to the north: above approximately 2500 m, 40 to 60 cm
- remaining regions: above approximately 2000 m, 20 to 40 cm."


http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN
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The snow has arrived in La Plagne!

Web cams here - http://www.ice-fire.co.uk/les-coches-information/resort-webcams-la-plagne-les-coches (ignore the roche de mio one - it's still set on last years end of season pic.
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Just remember, it will nearly all melt again before the season starts.
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Hopefully not on the glacier/top areas - it's pretty chilly high up now.
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Snow and Sunshine wrote:
Hopefully not on the glacier/top areas - it's pretty chilly high up now.


Glaciers good to go I would say (care with weak snowbridges if off piste mind). The skiing should be excellent from Thursday as should really high altitude areas such as Val Thorens etc. Watch the avalanche risk, the 22nd Oct snowstorm has left some rotten base on high, north sector slopes.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
davidof wrote:
Just remember, it will nearly all melt again before the season starts.


My guess is that probably above 2300M and certainly above 2600M anything that falls from now on is likely to stay.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@diarmuidlynch, looks to me like @FreeBeer, was quoting the SLF. Which Swiss mountain were you looking at and was it one of the ones referred to in the forecast?


I was looking up at Rigi but can see Pilatus too, was a small blanket of snow to 800 meters on Rigi, heavier on Pilatus today but will not stay as sunny again next few days. Just like 10 days ago where one days snow melted fast.

Was driving near Chamonix today and not a lot happening there either.
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emwmarine wrote:
davidof wrote:
Just remember, it will nearly all melt again before the season starts.


My guess is that probably above 2300M and certainly above 2600M anything that falls from now on is likely to stay.


It's been staying (melting, but v slowly) from around 1600m around here. Which isn't really a good thing...
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@diarmuidlynch, Rigi and Pilatus are both in Central Switzerland. The SLF forecast was pretty clear the snowfall was mainly going to be in the south and would drop off rapidly as you went north.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Liam Dutton's latest blog is worth a read.

"Jet stream hinting at what early winter may bring"

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/jet-stream-hinting-early-winter-bring/7539
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@diarmuidlynch, Rigi and Pilatus are both in Central Switzerland. The SLF forecast was pretty clear the snowfall was mainly going to be in the south and would drop off rapidly as you went north.


Nothing there either, Friday Saturday will be 10-12C!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@diarmuidlynch, I'm not sure I follow you? There has been heavy snow in the south of Switzerland. As forecast.

http://www.webcam-zermatt.com/webcam/findeln/matterhorn-3/
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@diarmuidlynch, I'm not sure I follow you? There has been heavy snow in the south of Switzerland. As forecast.

http://www.webcam-zermatt.com/webcam/findeln/matterhorn-3/


Don't always believe the Internet!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Latest SLF update.

Particularly in southern regions, critical Avalanche situation.

On Wednesday there was snowfall over widespread areas, in southern regions the snowfall was heavy. The snowfall level dropped during the course of the day down to approximately 1000 m in northern regions, down to approximately 1800 m in southern regions, in the Alpine valleys to some extent much lower. Winds slackened off and were blowing at light velocity in western regions, elsewhere at moderate strength, from southerly directions.
Between Monday midday and Wednesday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered above approximately 2500 m:

- Simplon region, southern Goms, central part of southern flank of the Alps: 100 to 150 cm
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn to the Bernina Pass, Val Poschiavo: 60 to 100 cm
- regions bordering to the north: 30 to 60 cm
- remaining regions: 10 to 30 cm widespread, in furthermost northeastern regions less

Weather, forecast through Friday, 07.11.

On Thursday skies will be heavily overcast accompanied by snowfall. During the afternoon, isolated bright intervals are anticipated from the west. The snowfall level will be at 1000 m in northern regions, 1500 m in southern regions. Moderate strength southerly winds will prevail.

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected above approximately 1800 m:

- Simplon region, Gotthard region, northern Ticino: 30 to 50 cm
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn into Rheinwald and regions bordering to the north, remaining Ticino, Moesano: 20 to 30 cm
- remaining regions: 10 to 20 cm

On Friday it will be rather sunny to begin with. Temperatures are expected to increase, reaching +2 °C at 2000 m by midday. During the afternoon, clouds are expected to move in from the west.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Lets go skiing so!!!

nozawaonsen wrote:
Latest SLF update.

Particularly in southern regions, critical Avalanche situation.

On Wednesday there was snowfall over widespread areas, in southern regions the snowfall was heavy. The snowfall level dropped during the course of the day down to approximately 1000 m in northern regions, down to approximately 1800 m in southern regions, in the Alpine valleys to some extent much lower. Winds slackened off and were blowing at light velocity in western regions, elsewhere at moderate strength, from southerly directions.
Between Monday midday and Wednesday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered above approximately 2500 m:

- Simplon region, southern Goms, central part of southern flank of the Alps: 100 to 150 cm
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn to the Bernina Pass, Val Poschiavo: 60 to 100 cm
- regions bordering to the north: 30 to 60 cm
- remaining regions: 10 to 30 cm widespread, in furthermost northeastern regions less

Weather, forecast through Friday, 07.11.

On Thursday skies will be heavily overcast accompanied by snowfall. During the afternoon, isolated bright intervals are anticipated from the west. The snowfall level will be at 1000 m in northern regions, 1500 m in southern regions. Moderate strength southerly winds will prevail.

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected above approximately 1800 m:

- Simplon region, Gotthard region, northern Ticino: 30 to 50 cm
- remaining Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn into Rheinwald and regions bordering to the north, remaining Ticino, Moesano: 20 to 30 cm
- remaining regions: 10 to 20 cm

On Friday it will be rather sunny to begin with. Temperatures are expected to increase, reaching +2 °C at 2000 m by midday. During the afternoon, clouds are expected to move in from the west.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
diarmuidlynch wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@diarmuidlynch, I'm not sure I follow you? There has been heavy snow in the south of Switzerland. As forecast.

http://www.webcam-zermatt.com/webcam/findeln/matterhorn-3/


Don't always believe the Internet!!


Umm..., I am in Cervinia and can vouch for how much snow has fallen in the last 36 hours! At least 60-70cm at 2100m!
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@Touchguru, I suddenly don't like you Happy
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Accuweather have just released their winter forecast for Europe; and its pretty inspired, its gonna be 'snowy' in the Alps! (or maybe they cheated and just looked at todays webcams)

They did a pretty good job at guessing last winter so I guess you can give them a little more credit than the usual suspects, but I leave you to judge.



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

Here are some previous forecasts...

Winter 2013-14:



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

Winter 2012-13:



http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001

Winter 2011-12:



http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-europe/56653
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Cracking picture from Cervinia's Facebook page today.

https://www.facebook.com/101058413375653/photos/pcb.408140682667423/408135289334629/?type=1&permPage=1
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@FreeBeer, "Less Valley Snow" was certainly not the case for the Aostan resorts...
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And a great video of today's snow in Wengen.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=578686225566728
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Snow in the Pyrenees over the last couple of days, not enormous amounts but pretty white from about 1600m Very Happy Very Happy
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Capital Weather Gang on El Niño.

NOAA decreases odds for El Nino again. What’s the deal?

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/06/noaa-decreases-odds-for-el-nino-again-whats-the-deal/
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Well after the mild half term the cold wind micro climate that is the Silksworth Dry slope in Sunderland was back to its usual self tonight - winter well and truly there tonight!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
There looks like being a fairly unsettled week of weather in the Alps from 09 November to 16 November. Temperatures a little cooler than average in the western Alps and a little warmer in the eastern Alps. But snow looks likely across the Alps at altitude, heavier to the south and west.

Precipitation

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Temperature

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
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Incidentally this is a good video by Bruce Jamieson from ASARC on different snowpack tests. Some nice shovelling going on too.

http://vimeo.com/m/79904128
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, very unsettled indeed. Ensembles have a large dispersion after Monday, which means lower confidence in the forecasts. Although large precipitation is quite likely:


http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Kaunertaler-Gletscher/?module=ensembles

On the shorter term, WRF shows precipitation in excess of 70 mm, especially on the southern side of the Alps:


http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/

Which will be a good snow dump at higher altitude:


http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/snowmaps.php
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Shall we rename this link "the Nozacota challenge". Fantastic to have two informed views on a subject that never ceases to interest me and by the footfall many other snowHead
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@simonmj66, thanks Simon. Best challenge will be tasting all that powder after the long summer (and I'm afraid it will be tasting in a very literal sense ...)

Another nice map of days to come:

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@cota4000, I do like the colour maps you are bringing to the thread
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I am quite sceptical about those meteoexploration forecasts. The site seems to forecast unrealistic amounts of snow that doesn't materialise. Do you know anything about their forecasting methodology and why they are so at odds with other sites?
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@peanuthead, This is bergfex, if you look carefully at the values they are pretty similar to me, may be just less dramatic colours:

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ECM produced an interesting chart this morning. It's at the far end of the run so the likelihood of it actually playing out like this is low, but it shows some substantial high level blocking over Greenland and is the type of thing that would force the jetstream South and allow cold air to push down.



In the meantime looks like snow midweek in parts of the Alps (similar focus to last week) down to 1300-1500m.
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5 out of 9 free riders buried in a high altitude, steep north facing slide in Pitztal earlier. The group was well equipped and although one was injured all safe. But clearly some fragility in places.

http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/lawinenabgang-pitztaler-jochl-mit_8.html?m=1
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On front page of tomorrow's Observer...

"Going, going... Resorts face snow crisis."

Hmmm....
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Read the Observer his morning that is regarding long term snow loss rather than 2014/5. There were many statements that this was an established fact supported by an unconvincing graph. If the melting of the Arctic continues I do not think anyone can fully predict the effect on NW Europe and the Alps including the possible swithching off of the Gulf Stream.
We do seem to be on a heating trend and the more we can do not to produce greenhouse gases the better - it is called hedging your bets.
Climates always change and I suspect for the first time man is having an influence.
The UK is an ideal global position to get a high % of its energy from renewable, low or non-emission sources - not sure why the Bristol Channel barage was cancelled. Fossil fuels will eventually run out and that may in the end reverse the "trend".
Too big a topic to discuss much here.
As a 55yo I think there will be enough snow to see me out.
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MMm, weather and politics-what a heady mix! Don't know if anyone agrees but the weather gods are giving us a good start, I reckon I'll be able to ski as soon as I arrive in la plagne on dec 3rd!
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If I remember correctly didn't we go for 5 or 6 years in the late seventies or early eighties where the Alps had very little snow and people came back from holidays complaining of seeing lot of brown fields.


However, lots of studies show how the impact of climate change will hit skiing.

This is quite an interesting read:

http://static.squarespace.com/static/525b7146e4b0e9bbe4c95701/t/5263604ce4b098807d0429c8/1382244428012/skisavingwinter.pdf

A UN study in 2003 predicts that the snow line will move 300m higher by 2050.

Long term I guess skiing is going to be squashed into the higher altitude areas.
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