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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Jonpim, we have option of leaving Sat afternoon or 4 am Sun morning. Despite OH reservations I have that second sense Saturday could be one of those once in a season days....
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@peanuthead, I'd definitely go for Sunday. Saturday, though it's not a very busy one, is going to be a fairly difficult transfer day, I'd say.
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About 30cms up Nordkette when the sun came out at 3pm today Very Happy
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BBC weather now mentioning the large amount of moisture getting picked up and going to get dumped on parts of Europe Smile
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That's not the dreaded hair drier poking its nasty head around the end of the month is it?
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@RetroBod, Don't think so looking at the ensembles on page 56 of this thread, looks like a slight rise in temp as the front goes through, then back to cold.

Don't forget anything more than 4-5 days away is unreliable in forecasting and just shows trends etc.
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@peanuthead, I think we already had a once in a season on 27th Dec - so I expect we will have another one this weekend
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Up to three foot of snow threatening parts of US East Coast

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/26/updates-up-to-3-feet-of-snow-expected-in-paralyzing-northeast-blizzard/

As for this Saturday it looks snowier on Thursday and Friday, but there could still be quite a bit on Saturday in the western Alps. Here's WRF for 12z Saturday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=126#model

Obviously that can change between now and then, but it doesn't need a lot falling at low levels to cause problems (I spent an age stuck behind someone sliding around without winter tires this evening in relatively light snow).
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Could this actually happen. I can't imagine it is a very accurate forecast. When did this last happen in the alps. Over 2m in 4 days.


http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/6day/mid
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@levster777, I'd be interested to know if Chamonix actually got 22cm today (as predicted on your snow-forecast link) - though i've just looked out and is still snowing here in Tignes (has been trickling down gently all day).
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levster777 wrote:
When did this last happen in the alps. Over 2m in 4 days.


http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/6day/mid


1999 I think. I was in Wengen at the time, the village was completely overwhelmed and there was no skiing for days.
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1999 it was..... I was in La Plagne .... its snowed 2.5m in 4/5 days .... then a break of a couple of days... then another 1m and then a 2 day break and another 1m ..... was crazy... from that day forth... 26th Jan... longest we went all season was 3 days for new snow wink
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Err...

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You know it makes sense.
@snowheads68, that doesn't have any resemblance to the 18z GFS op run that has just come out. I suspect it may be down to some sort of error at the wetterzentrale.de end.
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Jonpim wrote:
@levster777, I'd be interested to know if Chamonix actually got 22cm today (as predicted on your snow-forecast link) - though i've just looked out and is still snowing here in Tignes (has been trickling down gently all day).


I'm pretty sure the tabletop in the yard was bare this morning and now has least 15cm of snow, and it's still snowing moderately to heavily.
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@Jonpim, we're an hour from Cham and have had 20cm at 800m since midday.....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
@snowheads68, that doesn't have any resemblance to the 18z GFS op run that has just come out. I suspect it may be down to some sort of error at the wetterzentrale.de end.


Whatever has happened is flowing through to the likes of bergfex. Yesterday it was forecasting a good dump for next week but now it is showing virtually nothing.




Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 27-01-15 7:00; edited 1 time in total
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@Gaza, not got to meteoblue Puzzled
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@Gaza, I doubt it. I don't believe Bergfex uses GFS and has no connection to wetterzentrale.de.

Next week is far enough out for there to be substantial shifts in model output.
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Looking at the ensembles (wigglies), it looks like none of the forecasting models can agree past 4 days in the future, that's probably why we are seeing some dry forecasts at the moment, I hope !!
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@2planks, the reason the chart @snowheads68, posted doesn't show much snow is down to a glitch.

The GFS ensembles show heavy snowfall for parts of the Western Alps and Pyrenees going into this weekend. There is strong support for a continuation in fact a deepening of cold weather. There is no sign of cold temperatures easing through the first week of February.

After that it looks like there will be lighter snow on and off in the first half of next week in the northern Alps. 05 February currently looks like further snowfall on the Northern side of the Alps.

The Southern side of the Alps, Italy in particular looks cold, but dry.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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Quote:

The Southern side of the Alps, Italy in particular looks cold, but dry.

Good. I really don't want to battle with snow on that long drive. 15 - 20 cms in the Beaufortain yesterday and overnight; more than twice the snow-forecast figure.
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This is a serious amount of snow for the next week, especially on the Western Alps, Pyrenees, Western Norway and the Balkans:



I have the impression that the older GFS overestimated precipitation, I wonder how the new one (0p25) is doing.
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Flying out to Geneva on Friday morning and then driving to a place just past Megeve for the weekend. Looks like it's going to be an "interesting" journey there and, possibly, more-so on the way back to Geneva on Monday afternoon Shock

We're either going to have an epic weekend weekend of fresh powder skiing or a truly awful weekend either trying to ski in heavy snow & flat light, or digging ourselves out of a snowdrift!

Old GFS always overestimated ppn. GFS-P is so new that it's not really proven yet, so it'll be interesting to see the reality come Monday.
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cota4000 wrote:
This is a serious amount of snow for the next week, especially on the Western Alps, Pyrenees, Western Norway and the Balkans:



I have the impression that the older GFS overestimated precipitation, I wonder how the new one (0p25) is doing.


That model is still showing significant snowfall on 2nd and 3rd February but Bergfex is still showing insignificant amounts. Clearly a major disagreement somewhere. Puzzled Puzzled
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Quote:

but Bergfex is still showing insignificant amounts


Is it? Bergfex is calling for about 80cm in Les Contamines over the next few days?
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jedster wrote:
Quote:

but Bergfex is still showing insignificant amounts


Is it? Bergfex is calling for about 80cm in Les Contamines over the next few days?


For La Plagne it is. Note, that I'm referring to next week, not this week.

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@Gaza, I believe that Cota's pic shows the total snow over the next 180 hours (a week in old money)
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You know it makes sense.
red 27 wrote:
@Gaza, I believe that Cota's pic shows the total snow over the next 180 hours (a week in old money)


Ah! I see that now.
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Strong to storm force winds heading towards the western Alps and Pyrenees accompanied by heavy snow. Likely to be disruptive Thursday and Friday. Further snow in the northern Alps looks likely Monday and possibly Thursday.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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 Poster: A snowHead
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The cms were wrong again, forecast about 10 got 30 ish in town and more up high. Left Schladming this morning, weather clearing for an epic powder day. More snow in the pipeline too.
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Here's how WRF currently sees it. Remember this will still fluctuate between now and the storm's arrival. Heavy snow in the French Alps by 21z Thursday

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=51#model

Reaching the Arlberg overnight but still heavy in the west. 03z Friday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=57#model

Pushing further into Austria though weakening a little by 09z Friday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=63#model

Returning overnight 00z Saturday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=78#model

Saturday daytime snowing in the Arlberg. 12z Saturday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=90#model
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http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/why-the-snow-forecast-for-new-york-city-was-so-bad-and-what-should-be-done/

"Why were the forecasts so bad?

It’s simple: Many forecasters failed to adequately communicate the uncertainty in what was an extremely complicated forecast. Instead of presenting the forecast as a range of possibilities, many outlets simply presented the worst-case scenario."
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Short, sharp shock of wind and rain here this morning while the temperature dropped about 2° in and hour!
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@nozawaonsen, how good is the WRF model ?

I'm hoping it is very good as it is showing a bit more than than Bergfex and the GFS have forecast for Ischgl snowHead
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Quote:

Many forecasters failed to adequately communicate the uncertainty in what was an extremely complicated forecast

the forecasters might have hedged their forecasts around with all kinds ofs "ifs and buts" but that's not what the meeja want to put out, is it?

@altis, cold front? wind probably veered too.

Another tricksy transfer day coming up but with snow falling in bouts over several days, and its still being comparatively low season, the main roads probably won't be too bad. Might be lots of lift closures though.As I'm heading to Italy I expect to enter a Frejus tunnel with heaps of snow (possibly having followed a snowplough) and emerge into an arid, brown, landscape.
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This morning MWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA Deeeeeeeeeepppp
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pam w wrote:

I expect to enter a Frejus tunnel with heaps of snow (possibly having followed a snowplough) and emerge into an arid, brown, landscape.


There is some snow in Bardonecchia...!! snowHead

http://www.bardonecchiaski.com/en_US/inverno/webcam

Have a safe trip though! Smile
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

Amber snow alert for north west uk now issued for tonight. snowHead
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@Peter S, what chance of these showers re-opening Yad Moss??
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