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The All New 14/15 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/oiSn2JuDQSc
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@DB, Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@stefoy4me, yes I know the feeling. I bet it snows huge on 4th Jan as we get on our transfer bus back home
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Weather forecast is predicting snow here in Derbyshire for the weekend after Christmas...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Out of interest what is creating this dry and warm spell, is it the jet stream being further north than expected, or the high pressure over the Alps?

regards,

Greg
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Guessing both Greg- they are linked.

Lovely webcam pictures in Saalbach - little spots of white squeezed out on otherwise totally green hills. Quite how they still have skiing on the nursery slope and some resort runs open...

Snow-forecast.com seems to have a change to colder weather and a little snow from Xmas day. Up to then it's toasting, and those little white dots will mostly be gone
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@kitenski, bit of both (not a surprise as they both affect each other).

Euro high



Flat Jet



Some suggestions that there could be a shift in the stratosphere which might take things colder in New Year.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I use accuweather, and while no forecast will be accurate past four days, it has a general idea of how things look to be going, this is their page for anyone who wants to check where they are going, just type in the area and you should get a fairly accurate report. Farming in the west of Ireland depends quite a bit on forecasts, and we use this one. http://www.accuweather.com/en/at/ischgl/31047/january-weather/31047?monyr=1/1/2015
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biddpyat wrote:
I use accuweather, and while no forecast will be accurate past four days, it has a general idea of how things look to be going, this is their page for anyone who wants to check where they are going, just type in the area and you should get a fairly accurate report. Farming in the west of Ireland depends quite a bit on forecasts, and we use this one. http://www.accuweather.com/en/at/ischgl/31047/january-weather/31047?monyr=1/1/2015


It forecasts up until 1st feb... Or tries to. Quite how it can tell days apart...

Still the trend seems to be winter arrives properly from Xmas day onwards. I hope.

Closest I could get to Austrain ski resorts was Salzburg
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@biddpyat, snowing all month then - what's not to like Smile

Time will tell if it's a fairly accurate report...
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red 27 wrote:
@biddpyat, snowing all month then - what's not to like Smile

Time will tell if it's a fairly accurate report...


Exactly, snowing all January is perfect: I go in February and again in March (though I'm not worried at all about the latter as it's Obergurgl).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
buchanan101 wrote:
red 27 wrote:
@biddpyat, snowing all month then - what's not to like Smile

Time will tell if it's a fairly accurate report...


Exactly, snowing all January is perfect: I go in February and again in March (though I'm not worried at all about the latter as it's Obergurgl).


be careful what you wish for, sometimes there is too much snow (esp on transfer days)
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
All this talk of Warm? Puzzled
Here in La Plagne definitely much colder than yesterday, with lovely clear blue skies.
Must have finally frozen last night even down to 1800 - was icy everywhere this morning.
Lovely snow up top, rock hard pistes lower down.
Not great for all those coming out tomorrow, but there will be some skiing available
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
biddpyat wrote:
I use accuweather, and while no forecast will be accurate past four days, it has a general idea of how things look to be going, this is their page for anyone who wants to check where they are going, just type in the area and you should get a fairly accurate report. Farming in the west of Ireland depends quite a bit on forecasts, and we use this one. http://www.accuweather.com/en/at/ischgl/31047/january-weather/31047?monyr=1/1/2015


I would take their forecast at this stage, shows a big temp drop on the 28th Dec, we are on snow on the 4th January, hopefully enough time to get the cannons working.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hmmm...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/06/accuweather-you-cannot-be-serious-new-45-day-forecasts/
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Accuweather may well be rubbish, but we are human: we don't follow logic - we follow hope.
We search round all the forecasts and reject any that suggest warmth and lack of snow, and keep searching until we find one that we like.
then we cling to that one until we find a better one.
Of course, there is often than a lot of cursing and moans when the forecast doesn't deliver.
But we would rather have hope betrayed than day upon day of depression.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Jonpim, something snake oil salesmen, religious extremists, "man of the people" nationalists and political demagogues and rabble rousers of every hue have tried to exploit down the centuries. Fortunately the Renaissance, growth of rationalism and spread of scientific ideas has allowed a more balanced perspective to develop.
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Quote:
In reality, it is simply peddling a useless product to people who don’t know better?


The very idea! Toofy Grin
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Jonpim wrote:
All this talk of Warm? Puzzled
Here in La Plagne definitely much colder than yesterday, with lovely clear blue skies.
Must have finally frozen last night even down to 1800 - was icy everywhere this morning.
Lovely snow up top, rock hard pistes lower down.
Not great for all those coming out tomorrow, but there will be some skiing available


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In fairness folks I did say nobody can tell accurately past four days, but without throwing in the chaos theory as in anything can happen to change the course of events , it gives an idea of how the weather map is going and what it will predict, anything can happen in the air to change whats on the radar now. I find them very good for the close range forcast though, I have the app on my phone, it will say snow at 4 and sure enough it has been correct several times. Just trying to cheer you folks up , not peddle a website, although that does look like what I am doing. snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
looks like either I have the wrong URL or the ensemble computer is enjoying summer winter sun, appears to be stuck on the 00 forecast?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1047_ens.png
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@kitenski, I think there's a glitch on wetterZ this afternoon.
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Accuweathers forecast was pretty good for 2013/2014

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940
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What's happened to the GFS 06.00? Must be the office Christmas lunch.
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Jones82 wrote:
Accuweathers forecast was pretty good for 2013/2014

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940


Was it?

Quote:
Compared to last winter, the number of rain and mountain snowstorms from Italy to Greece and the Balkans will be lower. Storms in general in the region will less intense.

Snowfall Will Be Lean in Central and Southern Areas

The northeastward skewed storm track will tend to limit snowfall throughout much of Europe. The elevation at which snow falls will generally become higher than average from the Pyrenees to the Alps and Carpathian Mountains as warmer air moves in.

"Some ski resorts in the Alps could struggle to get enough snow over the winter, especially those at lower elevations or at the bases of the larger resorts," Reppert said.

Unsettled weather is most likely to occur during the beginning and end of the winter from central France to Germany and much of Poland, with a dry mid-season.


Parts of the south got unto 500% normal snowfall... With a lot of that coming mid-season.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I would say generally though 2013/2014 was drier and warmer than average.

Edit. Where I was in Tyrol, Ellmau!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Was in zell am ziller last feb and it was 15° C In the valleys and 5-6 on the mountain
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Jones82, it certainly was not in southern areas.

@pjd, it's a problem with wetterzentrale not GFS. You can see the 06z on Meteociel here.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, thanks. The funnel of doubt after the 26th, at least for the South Tyrol, is extremely wide. Something, I guess.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Agree with clarky999, there were some serious snow and ice storms in the Balkans leaving massive snowdrifts and floods- whether it fell as rain or snow, precipitation was extraordinarily high.

I've stopped looking at the cams for now.. Can't bare watching the blue skies when the slopes are so dire. Will avoid looking until Christmas day...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Jones82, it certainly was not in southern areas.

@pjd, it's a problem with wetterzentrale not GFS. You can see the 06z on Meteociel here.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1


Actually seems to be a problem with GFS today as well.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
under a new name wrote:
Balmy in Zurich.


Sizzling in Zug!!
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The delays with GFS are due to a problem with maintenance and failure of computers servers at NOAA. It is likely to last over the weekend:
http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Still saying post Xmas day
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Best wind up I've seen in ages


France - Royaume-Uni - Allemagne - Italie - Espagne NEW!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Try again


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/3h.htm
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Off to Enentekiö / Lapland to see Santa, will ask for some snow !!
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Just started snowing here in Plagne 1800 Shocked

Forecast was rain.
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saintstephen wrote:


I would take their forecast at this stage, shows a big temp drop on the 28th Dec, we are on snow on the 4th January, hopefully enough time to get the cannons working.


Be plenty of time. Been keeping an eye on Saalbach web cams. They put down artificial snow over a week ago and their nursery slopes still have some ski-able cover - despite being rained on and having 8C + temps. I doubt the snow will last this week as warm until Xmas. All forecasts still showing a big change to cold at Xmas.

Depends on how good your resort is at the artificial stuff I guess, but surely all of at least the Austrian ones should be good now - they have to use them so often!
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