 Poster: A snowHead
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Seen reports of a forecast for a strong El Nino next winter. What do the experts think that will mean for snow both here and around the world?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That means BIG SNOW 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well it might, it usually means a wetter cloudier winter, if one gets cold weather then that does indeed mean heavy snow.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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If you're talking about Europe, El Nino/La Nina/SO years have such little effect as to be swamped by local variances.
The El Nino effect can be very hit and miss in the US/CA too, 2010 was a El Nino year and you'll recall that Vancouver was very warm and wet and they were bussing the snow in to Cypress Mt.
So basically flip a coin and see what you get...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Generally El Nino's mean good snow in CA, and warmer than normal in PNW/BC. Strong El Nino's do tend to calibrate with lower/warmer snow years in PNW, 2005 being the most recent poster child of this.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Statistically. Maybe .... if El Nino arrives, and if it favors CA. After this year I suspect you'd be unlucky not to get some decent snow. But it's weather. Your 2 weeks are not predictable 8 months out, I'm afraid.
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Tony Crocker on epic has the splits on Nino/ Neutral/Nina for North America but the biggest thing he says is neglible certainty this far out.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It means a wild ride for us! Good year to travel the world?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Here we go:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 October 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3oC (Niño-3.4) to +1.1oC (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
Resources:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
http://www.scienceclarified.com/El-Ex/El-Ni-o.html
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/RTN/rtnt.html
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