 Poster: A snowHead
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ECM heading cooler from 02 November. It's there in amongst the GFS ensembles, but not the form horse. Hmmm.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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So summer time is over (and Winterzeit begins)... Use the extra hour to stay in bed or an extra hour of pre season training?
Temperatures do look like cooling a little from early November with some potentially quite stormy weather cropping up in a number of recent runs around 3-5 November which could bring further snow at altitude.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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06z GFS op throws out a cold and snowy Guy Fawkes in the Alps (and the Scottish mountains too).
06z GFS +240 (Meteociel)
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The cold variation above didn't go on to pick up support. So perhaps a light snow shower on Halloween in parts of the Alps, but otherwise as you were with plenty of sunshine.
Some of the rain falling in the Scottish mountains looks like turning to snow on Tuesday though temperatures rise later in the week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Any news when winter will possibly make its first appearance in the UK?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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18z GFS increases the snowfall for 04/05 November. Be interesting to see how it develops tomorrow and whether it builds consistency.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Love your work Noz. Quick question. Are the blue numbers on the GFs maps centimetres of snow or something else?
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@Raven, it's actually the predicted accumulated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measured in kg/m2 over the coming 180 hours.
Very roughly that equates to cm of snow fall. But that's assuming a standard snow water density of 10:1 (not bad as a rule of thumb, but in reality a lot more variable).
It's also extrapolated from the GFS op run (the thick green one), so will shift back and forth a fair amount. So a rough figure based on shifting input. The bottom line is you simply cannot predict snowfall to the cm. And even were that possible in theory (over what area?) it would be very difficult to validate since measuring snowfall accurately is such a complex task (given drifting, settling and very localised variation). I'd be wary of any forecast which attempts to claim with any confidence snowfall to the cm.
What I would draw from the chart is that there is a continuing signal for heavy snow next Tuesday Wednesday at the western end of the Alps on the Italian Swiss and Italian French borders. That's still nearly a week away mind you so plenty can change.
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You know it makes sense.
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Would be great if it happens. I'm in VT for first week of December and tend to think that anything that drops from around now onwards will stay at that altitude.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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06z spreads it east into the Tirol as well.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
12z GFS has a cold incursion in the western Alps around 04 November.
Edit: updated for 00z |
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 31-10-14 8:58; edited 3 times in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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12z and 18z kept it focussed at the western end. Indeed Zermatt looks like it could be quite a beneficiary on current modelling.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snowfall next week continues to look more likely at the western and southern end of the Alps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@nozawaonsen, when will winter be making an appearance in the UK?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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its like summer here in Switzerland, snow last Wednesday to 1,000 meters, none since then so putting away d skis and breaking out d sun bloc
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The 18z GFS had weaker snowfall next week, but it's picked up on the 00z GFS and remains focussed on the western and southern end of the Alps (remember some sites like snowforecast have a lag so will still be working off the 18z input for a while).
The stormy weather looks like being accompanied by strong winds in the mountains in the first part of next week. Over 50kmh in France and over 90kmh in Austria. It doesn't look especially cold, the snowline looks like being just above 2000m.
Some hints of further snowfall on 08/09 November in GFS, but let's see if that builds or not during the next couple of days.
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Bergfex predicting snowfall of apocalyptic proportions above 2,200M in Zermatt during early part of next week - 190CM apparently on Wednesday, someone's got their maths wrong me thinks.
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Nice...... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Well only two days out now and Bergflex is still predicting 4m plus over the summits over the next week at Zermatt and Saas fee! That would set their glaciers up for the whole season and improve their Christmas bookings 
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Bergfex must have a tie-up with the Zermatt tourist office ... we've booked to spend Christmas there.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Looking at the forecasts for next week the Southern Alps and South of the Alpine ridge look like getting the most at altitude with a strong Foehn wind in the north , Chamonix Meteo don't seem to be getting too excited but mention very heavy precipitation in the Asota valley .
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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There's a couple of stratocumulus clouds appearing on the Zermatt webcams - this must be it 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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There is a risk of a cévenol episode in the southern French alps over the next couple of days. We've already had two this autumn with disastrous effects - deaths, widespread destruction. It is basically warm very moist air blown of the Mediterranean and dumped on the mountains of the hinterland. For example if the episode of early September were repeated today it could result in 2 to 3 meters of snow being dumped at altitude in 3 hours! 
Currently there is a storm force foehn in our valley.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof,
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Swiss Avalanche Bulletin now issued, close to 2m of snow appears to be a real possibility in the Saas Fee/Zermatt area Tuesday/Wednesday..
Weather, forecast through Tuesday, 04.11.
On Monday night and during the day on Tuesday, intensive precipitation is expected in southern regions. The snowfall level is expected to be at approximately 2200 m. In the other regions skies will frequently be overcast. Southerly winds will be blowing at storm velocity, in high alpine regions even reaching gale strength. By Tuesday evening above approximately 2600 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated: Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn into Rheinwald and southwards thereof: 50 to 80 cm, in the Simplon region and in the Maggia valleys as much as 100 cm. Regions bordering immediately to the north as well as the remaining parts of the Main Alpine Ridge: 30 to 50 cm. Further towards the north, the amounts of new fallen snow will rapidly diminish.
Outlook
During the night of Tuesday, 04.11, heavy snowfall is expected to continue above approximately 2000 m in southern regions. On the Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn to the Bernina Pass and southwards therefrom, an additional 50 to 80 cm of snowfall is anticipated over widespread areas, from place to place as much as 100 cm of fresh fallen snow. As the cold front passes through, 10 to 30 cm of snowfall is anticipated in northern regions on Wednesday, in southern regions the snowfall will slacken off. In northern regions the snowfall level will drop down to about 1300 m on Wednesday, in southern regions to approximately 1700 m. The avalanche danger is expected to further increase, reaching danger level High (Level 4) during Tuesday night particularly at high altitudes in the major areas of precipitation. On Thursday, 06.11, bright intervals are anticipated in western and southern regions. In eastern regions a small amount of snowfall is expected above approximately 1500 m. The avalanche danger will diminish in southern regions more than anywhere else.
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/index_EN[/b]
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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After the coming snowfall 06z GFS suggests more snow in the Alps Saturday (mainly the eastern Alps), before further heavy snow across the Alps next Monday Tuesday (11/12 November). That's still a bit far out at present, let's see if it picks up support this evening.
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Southern French Alps this morning
but 20C+ in the Savoie this morning.
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@davidof, photos coming through on FB of snow in Serre Chevalier.
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@davidof, where is that pic from? It looks fantastic!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Mother of God, im looking up at a Swiss mountain and the sun is still beating down, where do ye get this info
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Swiss Avalanche Bulletin now issued, close to 2m of snow appears to be a real possibility in the Saas Fee/Zermatt area Tuesday/Wednesday..
Weather, forecast through Tuesday, 04.11.
On Monday night and during the day on Tuesday, intensive precipitation is expected in southern regions. The snowfall level is expected to be at approximately 2200 m. In the other regions skies will frequently be overcast. Southerly winds will be blowing at storm velocity, in high alpine regions even reaching gale strength. By Tuesday evening above approximately 2600 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated: Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn into Rheinwald and southwards thereof: 50 to 80 cm, in the Simplon region and in the Maggia valleys as much as 100 cm. Regions bordering immediately to the north as well as the remaining parts of the Main Alpine Ridge: 30 to 50 cm. Further towards the north, the amounts of new fallen snow will rapidly diminish.
Outlook
During the night of Tuesday, 04.11, heavy snowfall is expected to continue above approximately 2000 m in southern regions. On the Main Alpine Ridge from the Matterhorn to the Bernina Pass and southwards therefrom, an additional 50 to 80 cm of snowfall is anticipated over widespread areas, from place to place as much as 100 cm of fresh fallen snow. As the cold front passes through, 10 to 30 cm of snowfall is anticipated in northern regions on Wednesday, in southern regions the snowfall will slacken off. In northern regions the snowfall level will drop down to about 1300 m on Wednesday, in southern regions to approximately 1700 m. The avalanche danger is expected to further increase, reaching danger level High (Level 4) during Tuesday night particularly at high altitudes in the major areas of precipitation. On Thursday, 06.11, bright intervals are anticipated in western and southern regions. In eastern regions a small amount of snowfall is expected above approximately 1500 m. The avalanche danger will diminish in southern regions more than anywhere else.
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