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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

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so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie
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Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie

Definitely too soon to start panicking. Lots of uncertainty right now, we’ll have to wait two weeks to fully understand if the PV will stengthen or weaken and if/how the stratosphere and troposphere will couple.
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No sign of a cool down in the medium term, out to middle of November, and in the short term things warm up a bit in the western alps.

Meteoceil is hinting at a cooling off right at the end of its run (third week of November) so I’ll cling onto that.

It would be good to see a stronger indication of a cool down in the models over the next week if we are to get conditions more conducive to starting the season by the end of the month. Fingers crossed.
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Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...
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kitenski wrote:
Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...


??

Lifts due to open in 3 and a half weeks.
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snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...


??

Lifts due to open in 3 and a half weeks.


??

Not in the vast majority of resorts.
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kitenski wrote:
Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...


I guess our definitions of early season are different, but our resorts would normally be opening in the next 4 weeks or so



Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Tue 6-11-18 19:01; edited 1 time in total
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kitenski wrote:
snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...


??

Lifts due to open in 3 and a half weeks.


??

Not in the vast majority of resorts.


Really?

Here's the opening times for Ski Amade.

Schladming
2018-11-23

Zauchensee/Flachauwinkl
2018-11-23

Bad Gastein/Bad Hofgastein/Sportgastein
2018-11-30

Großarltal/Dorfgastein
2018-11-30

Galsterberg – Pruggern
2018-11-30

Hochkönig – Maria Alm
2018-12-01

Snow Space Salzburg – Flachau/Wagrain/St. Johann-Alpendorf
2018-12-01

Flachauwinkl/Kleinarl (Shuttleberg)
2018-12-01

Ramsau am Dachstein – Rittisberg
2018-12-07

Filzmoos
2018-12-08

Radstadt/Altenmarkt
2018-12-15

Monte Popolo – Eben im Pongau
2018-12-15

Fageralm – Forstau
2018-12-21

Stoderzinken – Gröbming
2018-12-21

Buchberg – Goldegg
2018-12-21

Graukogel
2018-12-22


Only the one hill/ couple of lifts areas (apart from Filzmoos) not due to open in 3 weeks time.

Probably around 90% of the Ski Amade would open in 3 weeks if there was enough snow.
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Ffs it's early season even right up to Xmas regardless of marketing lift opening dates. You may get great, average or poor snow, it's still very early in the season. Hence why I said no need to panic.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Tue 6-11-18 19:01; edited 1 time in total
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Most of the Zillertal would in theory be open from 1/12

Hintertux has 36km open today but nothing below glacier altitude.
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kitenski wrote:
Ffs it's early season even right up to Xmas regardless of marketing lift opening dates. You may get great, average or poor snow, it's still very early in the season.


Sure, but that's not what you said, re. 6 weeks before even thinking about early season conditions. Christmas is in 7 weeks; in 8 weeks we're basically at mid-season.

Not that there's anything to worry about at all yet, but it's still better to be accurate and honest.
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@clarky999, yeah fair point should have said no need to panic rather than think about early season snow. Feb is mid season in my mind, dec/Jan early season. March about perfect then spring end of March onwards as massive generalisations.
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@kitenski, +1. Too early to call. Though I can't help but watch and dream.
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snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
Oleski wrote:
so what's the general feeling about mid/end december conditions? Time to start panicking? Skullie


No, give it another 6 weeks before even starting to think about early season conditions...


??

Lifts due to open in 3 and a half weeks.


??

Not in the vast majority of resorts.


Really?

Here's the opening times for Ski Amade.

Schladming
2018-11-23

Zauchensee/Flachauwinkl
2018-11-23

Bad Gastein/Bad Hofgastein/Sportgastein
2018-11-30

Großarltal/Dorfgastein
2018-11-30

Galsterberg – Pruggern
2018-11-30

Hochkönig – Maria Alm
2018-12-01

Snow Space Salzburg – Flachau/Wagrain/St. Johann-Alpendorf
2018-12-01

Flachauwinkl/Kleinarl (Shuttleberg)
2018-12-01

Ramsau am Dachstein – Rittisberg
2018-12-07

Filzmoos
2018-12-08

Radstadt/Altenmarkt
2018-12-15

Monte Popolo – Eben im Pongau
2018-12-15

Fageralm – Forstau
2018-12-21

Stoderzinken – Gröbming
2018-12-21

Buchberg – Goldegg
2018-12-21

Graukogel
2018-12-22


Only the one hill/ couple of lifts areas (apart from Filzmoos) not due to open in 3 weeks time.

Probably around 90% of the Ski Amade would open in 3 weeks if there was enough snow.


Guess you can take it as done that all those opening dates going back at least 3 /4weeks or so
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Meanwhile it pukes in Tignes
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kitenski wrote:
Ffs it's early season even right up to Xmas regardless of marketing lift opening dates. You may get great, average or poor snow, it's still very early in the season. Hence why I said no need to panic.


You said that the vast majority of resorts were not due to open in 3 and a half weeks.

You were wrong.
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snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
Ffs it's early season even right up to Xmas regardless of marketing lift opening dates. You may get great, average or poor snow, it's still very early in the season. Hence why I said no need to panic.


You said that the vast majority of resorts were not due to open in 3 and a half weeks.

You were wrong.


No I was right. You've listed a few Ski Amade resorts, there are 100s of resorts in Europe that won't be open in 3 and a half weeks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ski_areas_and_resorts_in_Europe
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All the high altitude resorts are marketed as early season reliable ie. Zermatt, VT, Tignes, Argentierre, ischgl, Verbier Saas fee etc, plus some of the Dolomite and Austrian resorts which rely on snow making.

At the end of November we can review the success of altitude versus intervention as an early season strategy. At the moment altitude is winning but that could change if temperature drops in the next 2 weeks. Not looking likely at the moment though.
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kitenski wrote:
snowheads68 wrote:
kitenski wrote:
Ffs it's early season even right up to Xmas regardless of marketing lift opening dates. You may get great, average or poor snow, it's still very early in the season. Hence why I said no need to panic.


You said that the vast majority of resorts were not due to open in 3 and a half weeks.

You were wrong.


No I was right. You've listed a few Ski Amade resorts, there are 100s of resorts in Europe that won't be open in 3 and a half weeks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ski_areas_and_resorts_in_Europe


Bůřov (Czech R)

Top 740 m
Bottom 620 m
Slopes 1 km

So that's a "resort" is it?

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Velké Meziříčí 1 km of slopes with a massive 80m drop !!

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Obergurgl/Hochgurgl opens next Thursday 15/11 as scheduled according to the website, but going by webcams that'll be very upper slopes only atm.
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T-shirt weather in Brussels this evening.

Crazy.
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Some pre season tetcthiness creeping in...

Mild temperatures look set for at least the next 10 days. Beyond that is hard to tell. Could stay mild, might not. Anyone who says they know with confidence is making it up.

Good time to put in some hill training.

Here’s some Bach.


http://youtube.com/v/xR4IElye7eg
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I arrive out in Austria in 6 days. I'm prepared for some great mountain biking while I await the snow Madeye-Smiley
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It hit 24 degrees in Rosenheim yesterday because of the föhn conditions. Not quite so warm here in Munich but still perfect for biking.

I flew over alps on Saturday and it was very noticeable how quickly the snow disappeared north of the main ridge, a lot more on the south side.
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As nozawaonsen would say:

http://youtube.com/v/z9opdQcowXs
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Around ~25 major Western European resorts open today.

Austria has the most stations open right now.

Switzerland and Italy have (by far) the best snow.
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The last few GFS runs gave started to drift the high pressure over Europe north. If (and at this stage it is very much if) this happened cold air would be drawn across from the east...

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nozawaonsen wrote:
The last few GFS runs gave started to drift the high pressure over Europe north. If (and at this stage it is very much if) this happened cold air would be drawn across from the east...



If anything it looks like the Pyrenees will do well. How are they doing now compared to historically?
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@südtirolistdeutsch, below link has a lot of numbers to compare, and yes Pyrenees and Iberia in general have had the lowest pressure anomalies in europe for several months now.
https://www.onthesnow.com/pyrenees/font-romeu-pyrenees-2000/historical-snowfall.html?&y=2017

Lots of model watchers calling end of Nov / early Dec for the first big change to cold synoptics, supported by various back ground signals (entering solar min winter, strat disruption, MJO and all sorts of things I can't explain). But the mid range models are at least giving signs of a cooling trend on the ensemble averages. The elephant in the room euro HP block needs to go....preferably north. Below are the latest 10 day Northern Hem views: ECM, GFS (P) 00z. The parallel run, also called FV3, is the new version of GFS and is currently topping the prediction tables in the 10day range. It's easy to access on metrociel, go to normal GFS page and hit "Run Parallel NEW" top left of graph.

One of the differences with this next attack on the block is that undercutting lows may come from either west, east or both.

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Iberian peninsula looking good further south the next couple of days, too

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not looking too shabby @Breuil-Cervinia according to the Warren Smith Twitter account

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And not looking too shabby in Luzhba Skitouring Lodge Siberia - these are today, and more snow to come.

https://www.facebook.com/bestskiinginrussia

We leave week tomorrow for there Cool



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12z GFS is another one of those runs which builds heights over Scandinavia and ends up drawing in some very cold weather from the east...



Will it happen that way? Far too early to tell and models often struggle with Scandi highs. But worth keeping an eye on. Wink
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Interesting to see where ECM heads at the end of its run too.

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Pray for the Scandi high
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Don’t know if it helps, but Danish models suggest a Scandinavian High Happy
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I'm very much foreign to Europe and a weather dummy anyway.
Are these big high pressure systems over Europe common this time of year? Or is it a freak event?
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DanishRider wrote:
Don’t know if it helps, but Danish models suggest a Scandinavian High Happy


I always knew Helena would make a good weather girl! Toofy Grin
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A definate scandinavian high Toofy Grin
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@sbooker, it's not a freak event but we don't want the current weather pattern to carry on too long as it's stopping cold air, and fronts, from getting near the Alps.

High pressure somewhere over Europe isn't necessarily a bad thing. But it depends on where it's centred, as it dictates the wind direction in the areas around it - winds go clockwise around highs. This might already be obvious, but northerlies / easterlies usually bring cold air to the Alps, westerlies are warmer but usually wet or snowy, while southerlies are too warm (at this time of year) and often dry (with some exceptions).

A high further north could put the Alps in a colder easterly flow, for example, which I think is what the chart above illustrates. High pressure right over the Alps is less good for cold air or snowfall as air masses can't encroach from anywhere else.

(Have I got that right?! Laughing )


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Fri 9-11-18 13:46; edited 1 time in total
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