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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like snow everyday this week in the west Highlands. The season is really setting up nicely in Scotland. The prospects for March are looking good snowHead
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Here are some ensembles...

Snowfall to low levels tomorrow, but warmer end to the week in Alps and Pyrenees before cooling down again from Sunday.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Both GFS and ECM extend the mild spell from the end of this week.
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Morning all! Anyone got any thoughts on weather for Val D’Isere/Val Cenis for early March? Anyone know what the long term forecasts are saying?
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Seabass90 wrote:
Morning all! Anyone got any thoughts on weather for Val D’Isere/Val Cenis for early March? Anyone know what the long term forecasts are saying?


your guess will be about as accurate as any charts this far out NehNeh
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Seabass90 wrote:
Morning all! Anyone got any thoughts on weather for Val D’Isere/Val Cenis for early March? Anyone know what the long term forecasts are saying?


There will be a mixture of snow and sun with fluctuating temperatures.
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@Seabass90, as others have said it’s really not possible to provide any sort of sensible forecast that far out. Add to that that last night saw the start of an SSW and the joker really is wild.

Bitter around the Saaltal plus extra half term guests quickly turned the fresh snow to foxy moguls. Fair bit of fresh snow later this evening round Zell.

Plenty of evidence that the fresh snowfall has not bonded that well with the base.

Should be sunnier tomorrow!

And GFS has swung back to a snowy start to next week!
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How cold this morning !!!!

At 07:30 minus 16 !!!!

Cloudless ski here.

Going for a little hike later to find some cold fresh hopefully away from the hordes, though does involve getting a couple of lifts prior Sad
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@Weathercam, was very cold this morning out east too.Made for fantastically light powder from snowfall the night before. And sunshine in the morning too! Great fun. And some excellent Fasching costumes about too!
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@nozawaonsen, twice today BBC Weather forecasts on TV have made mention of possible “extremely cold” weather at the end of the month. Highly unusual for them to speculate, were not talking The Express here wink.

Any thoughts ?
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@Gary Fat Fingers,

See
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Been under speculation for the last week or so
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@Gary Fat Fingers, they are referring to the possibile impacts of the SSW I suspect.
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Thank you Rob Mackley for the Theweatheroutlook article
And now i know what SSW stands for (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) Smile
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You know it makes sense.
Gary Fat Fingers wrote:
@nozawaonsen, twice today BBC Weather forecasts on TV have made mention of possible “extremely cold” weather at the end of the month. Highly unusual for them to speculate, were not talking The Express here wink.

Any thoughts ?


The possibility is there but the major models are not agreeing on this outcome currently. Probably need to wait until the weekend at least to have any confidence of wether any major cold plunge will happen. Even then it could still change to a less colder outcome at short notice
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A bit more from the Met Office on the uncertainty being caused by the current SSW.

“Aidan McGivern provides the details of the forecast for the next 10 days. Uncertainty reigns over whether the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event - currently happening 80,000 feet above the North Pole - will affect our weather. As Aidan explains a possible outcome is colder weather for the UK.”

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155579421269209/
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@nozawaonsen, very interesting. Thank you.
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GFS and ECM disagreeing about next weekend.



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@snowheads68, if you look at the spread of the ensembles from next week you can see that divergence in model output is particularly wide at present even within the same model.
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@nozawaonsen, well Noza forecasts look erratic at best next two to three days onwards.

I have options of being with a couple of guides and a bunch of Scandies and Yanks over next week dropping in and out as conditions dictate with the guides as I live in the vicinity they understand that I may opt out but could well be classic Spring touring Monday onwards, just hope the guides can pick better lines that I Toofy Grin
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After a mild spell ECM takes things below average for the Alps and Pyrenees from Sunday.
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ECM suggesting a strong easterly at the end of its run which would bring some cold temperatures to the UK if it played out.

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ECM and GFS both now lining up some particularly cold spells for second half of February



That said next week and beyond remain unusually uncertain.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Temperatures dropping again soon. A cold week to come and looks like a colder one to follow.

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A bit more background on the SSW and it’s likely impacts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk

Models now starting to come in line.
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Fingers crossed. Proper easterlys are usually great news for the Pennines and eastern Cairngorms unless it is too far south.
What would it mean for the alps? Deep cold or can it bring snow ? Unlike the uk there is no sea to the east of the alps so where would the moisture source for snow be, or is it a case of establish the cold then wait for Atlantic or Mediterranean systems to collide?
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@Peter S, yeah pretty much you latter point for substantial snow.
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Some really cold temperatures starting to show up on ensembles as that SSW starts to show its teeth...

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Bit nippy in Suffolk Cool
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You know it makes sense.
Warm in NYM - 6!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Peter S, something like this (if it happened) would be very snowy.

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