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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nemesys, high winds before the storm could also be an issue, I doubt much will run in plus 30 knot winds - particularly as Val offers little shelter, but I'm sure you will be fine as the big dump will get reduced as normal.
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@Brothergrimm,
I find Bergfex pretty good, especially for Austria
Piste maps, forecasts (from ZAMG, based on ECM), snow report and webcams for hundreds of resorts.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Bergfex is only good for +3, +4 days max. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.
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the question was about fallen snow not forecasts - and I like bergfex as much as anything for that...Would be very cool if there was a 7 day accum map someplace....one can dream.
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@Brothergrimm, something like this?
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Brothergrimm wrote:
the question was about fallen snow not forecasts - and I like bergfex as much as anything for that...Would be very cool if there was a 7 day accum map someplace....one can dream.


http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/alps?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days
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About Bergfex, they are predicting about 250 cm of snow the coming week for Chamonix. So right now theyre good for 7 days ahead.

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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Here is SLFís assessment of current (actually 30/11) snow depths in Switzerland as a % of average. Quite a large swathe well above average.



This gives you the last three days snowfall

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html?no_cache=1#hn3d
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Worth watching how ECM keeps repeating the cold and snowy pattern next week.

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The gif that keeps on giving.
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@snowheads68, Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@snowheads68, Laughing

@langball, mentioned the recent tendency towards rinse and repeat the other day. Will be interesting to see if it is sustained.

Should start to get a better feel for potential Friday snowfall tomorrow.

Outstanding conditions this morning in Tirol (before flat light and milder temperatures set in later).
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ECM 00z reloads again....either way it's been a remarkable run....must be 5-6 weeks we've had of northerlies now.
Having a look at GFS suite there have been one or two hints of a change towards 18/19 Dec, thankfully way off in cuckoo land.
ECM ensembles are unanimous for the current pattern to continue for another 10 days (but even all 51 ensembles do get it wrong occasionally). Left graphic shows all 4 clusters colouring in red heights up towards greenland.
And for the extended FI look to +360 on the right, there is understandably a much wider spread of options.... one is awful atlantic driven muck, and another might see scandi blocking / easterlies.
At that range you might as well get the crayons out and hand the map to the kids.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Andorra has had a great start to the season. Pretty much every major resort is now open.

Parts of northern Japan, like Niseko, have had almost a week of constant snowfall.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
First belt of snow hitting the Alps Friday into Saturday.



Second band arriving Sunday into Monday.



Third rounds begins Wednesday into Thursday.

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 Poster: A snowHead
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Whoop Whoop!!
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DEC 6th - 22nd

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
looking at that gif I think I just had a small accident.
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looks great! but does that mean around Avoriaz most of the new snow will melt/disappear towards the 22nd December?
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@gsmyth555, there is simply no point at all looking at forecasts now for 22 December. Take a look at the first post on page one of this thread.
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@nozawaonsen, to be fair to @gsmyth555, the gif above does show reducing snow DEPTH up to the 22nd. I thought the charts on this page showed cumulative snow FALL so to see a reduction (regardless of timescale) is surprising.
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@leggyblonde, depends what the chart is showing and thatís not clear.

Either way itís based on the GFS op run out 16 days. So should be treated with a lot of caution (see page one, post one).
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Quote:

depends what the chart is showing and thatís not clear.

agreed!
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its there on the site - just a gfs model that appears to take settling and melt into account -

doesn't sync very well with observations thus far ...but its fun to watch the first week! It has some of the highest elevations
losing 1.5 meters of depth in 5 days...im gonna go out on a limb and not buy that. Im also not buying the accumulations but its a pretty little video game.
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@Brothergrimm, no I donít buy it either.
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But does the regression indicate melting, or simply settling of the new snow? At the start of the gif, which is today, basically no area is shown as having more than 40-50 cm of snow, which we know is not correct - right? Or am i missing something?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The complexity of a model which could accurately forecast snowfall over a week out and then project the combination of settling, melting and drifting of snow is undermined by the inherent inaccuracy of any modelling at that range. You can come up with data for the animation, but whilst it might be fun to watch Iím not sure it tells you anything especially useful.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Put it in the not completely helpful folder.

Back to basics.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Yeah the chart supposedly measures snow depth. The methods they use are not very accurate and uniform. The snow depth does include melting. The models tend to be crap at visualising that, as it isn't uniform. And as Noza has pointed out, it's GFS 16 day. Caution with that.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Closer in WRF is likely to give you a better feel for likely snowfall, but accurately forecasting snowfall and accurately measuring it afterwards are both fraught.

On the positive side there looks like being a lot of snow to come especially for the western end of the Alps. Here is WRF out till Saturday lunch time.



ECM now has variations on this pattern continuing to at least mid month.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Good Lord! I can't believe it that with the amounts of snow forecast over the next week people are freaking out about it all melting by Christmas! rolling eyes
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Glasses half empty. And even that will have evaporated by Christmas.
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CathS wrote:
Good Lord! I can't believe it that with the amounts of snow forecast over the next week people are freaking out about it all melting by Christmas! rolling eyes

+1(although I do really appreciate reading the more informed posts- CANNOT wait for Arlberg 26 Dec- will have to be a pretty catastrophic melt to spoil the fun😀
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Its not melting now. The season is to be set. Very Happy
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since you didnt like the last one - is something like this better?
72 hrs
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ECM has found the cold and snow rhythm maker and just keeps banging out the hits till at least 17 December.


http://youtube.com/v/k-q53FuMLCQ
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@gsmyth555, puh-lease!

Snow here is not like the snow you get in e.g. England. Which arrives and melts.

There's now an fine and well compacted base in the Northern French Alps and Switzerland sufficient that Compagnie du Mont Blanc, for example, are opening all areas on Saturday for the season.

The. SEASON.
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I see the models picking up a mix of warm air sun/mon...so looks like a lot of rain will fall below 1800m. Freeze levels might turn around again, as it's 3-4 days away, but the most recent output has seen a sharp rise in temps 10-12 before dropping again into 13th. Morris' latest discusses Fohn impact. ECM / YR.NO also in agreement re. rain.



My understanding is the main low pressure trough gets dragged too far south west by what seems to be a 'slider low' coming in from the atlantic. The result is the jet steam turns from a northerly to a flatter west -east direction, and the cyclonic nature of the depression pulls up warm air from the south west. Still plenty of snow before and after this event, just looks like the lower resorts will get flooded for a while.
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Yep with the Atlantic wide open the jet roars in.

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Looks pretty good to me. You could be here on the West Coast of NA, and getting cold/dry conditions in the PNW and most of the west for the next 10 days or so, or raging fires down near LA, Cali....Cheers to a white Christmas!
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