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An interesting read from Henry re Avalanches

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
http://www.henrysavalanchetalk.com/success-and-enjoyment-off-piste-skiing/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's a helpful idea - avalanches being a low frequency event - low probability but high consequence - and this being a psychological trap.
There is a parallel in investing. Nassim Taleb (Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness) talks about it a lot. He scorns strategies that are "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" - can seem like a low risk way of making money day in day out until that day ten years later when you trip over you shoe laces and get crushed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sounds similar to the 3x3 risk reduction method they teach as part of the Swiss avalanche education.
http://www.slf.ch/praevention/verhalten/Risiko-Check/index_DE
(sorry, only German or French).
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
jedster wrote:
It's a helpful idea - avalanches being a low frequency event - low probability but high consequence - and this being a psychological trap.
There is a parallel in investing. Nassim Taleb (Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness) talks about it a lot. He scorns strategies that are "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" - can seem like a low risk way of making money day in day out until that day ten years later when you trip over you shoe laces and get crushed.


Love a bit of Taleb, Watched some of Henry's stuff last year, and he talks about system 1 and system 2 thinking. I've been exposed to it through work, but it's fascinating.
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