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Beginners guide to forecasting, GFS models?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Folks, is there any way to fix the fact that the first chart up here is current (i.e. today's), rather than as it was on 4/4/06 when carled posted it, and when brian commented on the "outlying blue line"?

So I guess that's a 2 part question: is there anywhere to get the 00z from 04/04/2006? can an admin swap it in for the one that's there?

If not, perhaps an admin could edit the posts which refer to the now-gone chart to indicate that one shouldn't tear one's hair out looking for the outlying blue line...

Actually.... hang on.... today's 12z is actually much more consistent with the text than the first time I looked at this thread. At a pinch we could use that...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
awf, no (and therefore, no). wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
There is a new snow accumulationl chart from the German Met Office. This will give a good indication of snow for next 72 hrs at 10km horizontal resolution.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/wrf/
select 3h-neuschnee and gesamt-neuschnee (which are 3hr snow accumulation and total accumulation from the model start time(normally last midnight or midday)) Note that the scales are NOT the same and are in cm.
My last look has over a meter of snow in the next 3 days for parts of Switzerland. snowHead
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
Why does - as seems to be the case currently, by several degrees - the GFS thick green temperature line often not line up with the other models, even when the correlation of the other models is extremely tight. And I don't mean fantasy island, i mean the prediction for later today!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Well to my inexpert eye it looks as though all bets are off after the 12th. You could read whatever you want into those ensembles.
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
The ensembles rarely seem to show trends that would appear to show the expected (by me) variation between day and night. Is there a reason or is the differentiation there and just not as obvious as I'd expect?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ishay, I would have said in most of the graphs it DOES indicate day vs night. Maybe it's more prominent in the non winter days?

The peaks and troughs can be seen on this example:

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Hmmm, well yeah it certainly looks like it on that chart!

I've been watching this one though for Northern Italy and it is much less obvious (and always seems to be so)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png

Local conditions? But then I've been going here for 3 years and I know it certainly does drop, a lot, at night
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Answering the title of the initial post, I would recommend the courses at Meted, they go from basic to pretty advanced. There is plenty of information there:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

Some basic stuff at http://www.meteoexploration.com/information.php they also show the actual GFS maps and ensembles.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
The TWO spin off site IcyBlasts now offers 16 day probability forecasts in addition to the deterministic ones. My view is these provide a better guide to the medium term weather prospects despite these being set at regional rather than resort level. The plots shows 850hPa temperatures, precipitation amounts, the 'snow row' (number of runs in the suite forecasting snow) and the surface level temperature spread.

The probability forecasts can be viewed by using the resort picker and then selecting probability:

http://www.icyblasts.com/
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I am, on the whole, a not too dim bloke, but the GFS charts are leaving me totally dark? Are the wiggly lines across the centre the 'ensemble'; being a collection of available chicken-bone predictions? Do we snowies get excited when they are close to being a fat corridor across the page, rather than a spider's web all disagreeing? If yes-ish (well done me!)... what's the bottom row of lines telling me? And what are the 'P' numbers on the y axis?

I have tried to follow the explanations, honest!

CG
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
top set of wigglies are various predictions for temperature, with the white one being the 'ensemble' and the red the 30yr ave. The closer the lines, the more the various models agree - so generally close together in the next few days, getting less agreement the further out.

lower wigglies are precipitation.

P stands for Precipitation , and aren't relevant to the graphs - they're for the maps.

So what we want is the top wiggles (temp) heading towards 0 or below (left axis) and the bottom wiggles (precipitation) high. Lots of precipitation when freezing = snowHead snowHead snowHead


I think.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@doctor_eeyore, Ta for that. CG
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
https://www.windytv.com
Windytv
https://www.ventusky.com
Ventusky

Both are Interactive Weather Forecasts that show forecasts for GFS, GEM, EC. Lots of things to play with for those who don't wish to use ensembles or other maps or as a companion to these. Enjoy.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
MoodyFFS wrote:
As a webby geek rather than a weather geek I thought this might be useful:

GFS graph grabber


Now no longer available.... sorry!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
No it's not! Where do we go for the GFSs now? (Thanks for the years of service BTW!)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
If I can I'll find an easy alternative for you all.

Is it the live links that were most useful or the point in time grabs?
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