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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I would much prefer to be in thigh deep powder in bright sunshine.... It can happen even in europe, Bil and i had it in I think 2004, we arrived in 3vs on the thursday, had a ski on the Friday, started snowing heavily in the afternoon and stopped at about 5am. Cue one of the most fantastic days skiing i have ever had, i can still here in my head the whole mountain laughing and whooping. A truly epic day, even if my skiing wasnt really up to the conditions.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
horizon wrote:
huh, who wants high pressure?


me
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Personally I'd like nothing better than a massive dump of snow just before I arrive, then blue skies, then another massive dump of snow, then more blue skies etc. But hey you can't have it all Very Happy

I'm not averse to the odd day of whiteout, but I get enough greyness at home in Manchester to last me a lifetime so it's the last thing I want when I'm on holiday.
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dazh wrote:
First post here so hello all Happy

I've been eagerly watching this and the snow report threads as I'm off to La Tania on Saturday for a week. Anyway I came across this weather site which looks hugely encouraging and may be of interest. I'm no weather forecaster but it would appear a high pressure system could be on the cards for most of next week, after some snow over the weekend. Obviously still quite early but fingers crossed it doesn't change!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=frfr&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0


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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quick glance at 12z GFS.

After a cold week it looks like the last few days of January may be mild.

After a bit if a break snow pushing in around 28 Jan possibly quite a bit in the west.

As we go into February there is a signal for perhaps a return to colder weather.

The op run would bury parts of the eastern Alps in FI (but is clearly an outlier!!)

Arlberg

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 You'll need to Register first of course.
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Another for the sun. -20 nearly all week in Zermatt last year gives me a taste for something possibly slightly warmer at lunch. Frozen beer is not good Very Happy
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
waynos, so do i !!!!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
No posts all day? Really?
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
sunny and cold for the Hahnenkamm races at Kitzbuehel this weekend.
http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/So-wird-das-Wetter-in-Kitzbuehel/92327026

Schladming World Champs less than 2 weeks now, so at the far end of the forecast.



So warming up for a couple of days next week but cooling off and some precip for start of champs on 4th Feb.
When I left schladming this week great conditions, the valley is white again, good for the tv cameras, pumping out
mountains of man made snow on the critical race piste, a decent base off piste now (not for WC for me)
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
waynos, yep looks good for Sat and Sun in Kitz!

Fresh snow into the western Alps next Sunday into Monday. Before (probably briefly) warming up a fair amount in the second half of next week and looks quite sunny.

Out into FI and there's a cooling trend as we push into February and looking more unsettled with further snow.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen, Tirol radio is putting out a warning about incoming snow later today. I've just spent the morning at Axamer Lizum with clarky99 and we had brilliant sunshine, but very cold temperatures. We could see that there was a light Fhn effect with great long distance vis, but lots of cloud coming up from the south behind it.

Back home here on the north side of the Bavarian Alps it is really grey and foggy with temperatures still well below 0C even at 13.00! Gut feeling based on the forecasts and what I know of my local climate - we is in for some snow, probably by Monday, so chaos on the motorways around Munich for me on my commute into work (again!) Evil or Very Mad
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Almost 48 hours of very heavy snow here in the central Pyrenees. Key cols have been closed for safety and resorts were closing early as high winds were causing problems.

By this morning:

Piau Engaly: 1 metre 25 (in 24 hours)
Baqueira Beret (65cm)
Peyragudes (50cm)
Superbagneres (40cm)

And a lot more has fallen since. Tomorrow will be very cold before the temperatures start rising until the end of the month. Before they do we are going to some awesome powder to play in.

1st lifts tomorrow I think. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Ski Guide, 1.25m, wow, enjoy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
SLF have updated their comparison of this Year's snowpack against the 10 year average.

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hsm/index_DE

Large parts of the Swiss Alps with between 100-150% of average snowfall and on the French border some places creeping over 150%.

That's not as much as a few weeks ago, but still very healthy.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Please may I have some sun in the Dolomites in the first week of February? It would be so sad not to be able to see those beautiful peaks.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Monday morning snow currently looks like this on WRF at 0600z

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=96#model

Focused on the northern Alps in an arc from the French Alps to the Arlberg bringing up to a foot of fresh snow. It pushes east through Monday weakening as it does.

The basic pattern for temperatures remains the same, a warmer spell to end the month before below average temperatures and potentially snowier weather returns as we go into February.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Could someone link me the charts, like the one waynos has posted that are most accurate for Les menuires / 3vs. I can't seem to find them. Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Tomo54, look back up the thread for a link to the nearest one, they update automatically.
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Tomo54, go to page one.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Hi Noz,
Bergfex is predicting a mega-dump for the Northern French Alps next weekend. 1m of snow over the weekend. what's your take on that? Still too far out in FI?
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philhitch, there's a bit of a split between ECM and GFS as we go into February. ECM is keen to punch low pressure into the Med, GFS is more inclined to keep high pressure in place. Which one gains the upper hand...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Continues to trend generally colder as we push through February.



And what many may be looking for is...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0X1SOZrGjgI
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozza t'other way round for me please but each to their own.

Moving on, I see Chamonix-meteo has taken the (fairly) unusual step of issuing a mid-day update which radically ups the amount of snow forecast for Sunday night & into Monday.

Good.

(how's the leg btw?)
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red 27, here's SLF.

"Monday
Skies will be heavily overcast. By morning a small amount of snowfall is anticipated, most of which will fall on the northern flank of the Alps, about 10 - 20 cm. The snowfall level in northern regions is expected to ascend temporarily to about 1200 m. During the course of the day it will turn increasingly sunny from the west. Temperatures will drop again. The avalanche danger is expected to increase in northern regions in particular."
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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A warm spell clearly coming in the middle of next week, but it will cool quickly as we go into February.

This morning's GFS has the Azores high pushing snowfall around 04 Feb to the eastern end of the Alps.

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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen, ECM going cold for the uk as well judging by that chart!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski, the chart above is from GFS? As it happens ECM is also going for colder weather as we go into February.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, I was referring to the one you posted last night at 2057
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
06z had snow in the western Alps next Saturday, before further snow possibly heavy in the Eastern Alps around 04/05/06 February. Very cold in far FI.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Some extracts from this evening's SLF update including tomorrow's snow.
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

"By Monday morning, widespread snowfall is anticipated, most of which will fall in the central sector of the northern flank of the Alps. As of midday in western and southern regions it will be predominantly sunny, elsewhere turning increasingly sunny from the west.

Fresh snow

By the time the precipitation comes to an end on Monday midday the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected:

-northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Alps into Val Muota, 15 to 25 cm
-elsewhere, 5 to 15 cm widespread
-central sector of southern flank of the Alps, less than 5 cm

The snowfall level in northern regions will be 800 to 1300 m to begin with, then drop lower.

Outlook until Wednesday, 30.1.2013

On both days it will be rather sunny during the morning, before cloud moves in from the west each day and light precipitation sets in. The snowfall level in northern regions will be at approximately 2000 m. A strong velocity westerly wind will be blowing."
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
it's snowing steadily in the beaufortain. Not chucking it down....
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
If I'm reading the charts right still looking good from the weekend (in Austria at least) for cold and snow. Bergfax picking it up now http://www.bergfex.com/schladming-planai/wetter/.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snow in Zermatt this Saturday, for our arrival! Very Happy http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_846_ens.png
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Saturday looks like it might be an exciting transfer day Shocked

Next week still looks in the balance as per Nozza's jet stream chart above... Subtle movements of that big high over Spain / Azores could mean the difference between windy drizzle and bluebirds for next week's skiers (like me)


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 29-01-13 11:46; edited 1 time in total
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
snow-forecast can't decide whether it will be snowmageddon in the western Alps or just a moderate dump. either would suit me Cool

GFS ensembles seem to be making the snow event over the weekend look bigger and bigger
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Hope we can make it into Saalbach...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Arno wrote:
snow-forecast can't decide whether it will be snowmageddon in the western Alps or just a moderate dump. either would suit me Cool

GFS ensembles seem to be making the snow event over the weekend look bigger and bigger


The problem is the GFS operational run at 00z hours is quite an outlier on the precipitation chart for Les Deux Alps and Chamonix. Most of the other member runs are only showing half of the precipitation of the operational run. I expect the precipitation spike to be moderated down on the operational run as we get nearer the weekend.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Now the latest GFS 06z run has removed the high precipitation spikes for Chamonix and Les Deux ALpes. BUt instead has introduced them for Bad Gastein. This is now shown on the updated snow forecast for Ski Amade region which has increased substantially. I'm not suprised so many people get caught out by the snow forecast.com site which I think uses the latest GFS operational run. You really are best to wait a day before to see what the forecast is if using the snow forecast.com site

http://www.bergfex.com/wagrain/wetter/

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1347_ens.png
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There will be snow coming then...

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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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Oh god. Got loads of mates coming over this weekend. Looks like it could be a transfer day FROM HELL.
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